UK retail sales growth slowed to just 1.1% in February, according to the latest BRC-KPMG retail sales data as dreich weather and a post-Christmas hangover in apparel weighed on the high street.
Non-food sales fell 0.4%, while food sales were up 2.9%.
Shore Capital analyst Clive Black said the February data, while weak, has already been "somewhat eclipsed by the events in the Middle East and the already evident and potentially, largely negative, consequences for the UK consumer economy."
The worry, Black argues, is the compound effect of several headwinds arriving simultaneously.
Diesel prices are already above 150p a litre, freight costs are rising, and mortgage rates face upward pressure, all of which risk pushing inflation higher than expected between March and September.
That in turn could make it harder for the Bank of England to deliver the rate cuts that had been widely anticipated, removing an anticipated boost to households and businesses.
Consumer confidence was already softening before the Iran conflict, with GfK's measure falling three points to minus-19 in February, Black noted, driven by growing anxiety about job security and the potential impact of artificial intelligence on employment.
Apparel retailers face particularly tough spring comparatives against last year's warm weather, said Black.
Bringing it all together, Black said: "Our concerns around the weakness of the UK labour market remain intact as worries about job insecurity may be independently building, all of which with tough weather-related comparatives and miserable England rugby supporters, makes for a rather mellow current mood music."
He also expressed doubts that England's football team will be "the agent to reverse some of these more sombre and sober trends" in June and July through the FIFA World Cup.
"We do not seek to talk ourselves into a depressed mindset but in the space of a month or so things have not changed for the better; the sooner matters settle in the Middle East, in this respect, the better."