Broker upgrades odds on AVANZAR lung cancer trial after arguing repeated delays signal strong results in treatment arm
Jefferies has lifted its price target on AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN), the FTSE 100 pharmaceutical company, from 15,000p to 18,000p, reiterating a 'buy' recommendation, arguing that the drugmaker is better positioned for long-term growth than the market appreciates.
The broker's analysts have reversed their cautious stance on AVANZAR, a phase III clinical trial testing AZ's cancer drug
Datroway (datopotamab deruxtecan) combined with immunotherapy Imfinzi and chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
AVANZAR has been delayed twice and is now expected to report results in the second half of 2026.
Rather than treating those delays as a warning sign, Jefferies argues they likely reflect better-than-expected survival rates in the patients receiving AstraZeneca's experimental combination therapy.
The control arm in the AVANZAR trial uses the established Keytruda plus chemotherapy regimen from Merck, a combination that has shown consistent real-world results closely matching its original clinical trial data, giving analysts confidence the delay is being driven by the active arm outperforming.
On that basis, Jefferies has raised its estimated probability of the trial succeeding from 40% to 60%, a shift it says adds meaningfully to AstraZeneca's revenue prospects, particularly given the potential upside for Imfinzi sales if the drug is approved in the combination setting.
Beyond AVANZAR, the broker highlights three technology platforms it believes AstraZeneca leads or is among the most advanced in developing: cell therapy, inhaled biologics, and T-cell engagers (TCEs), a class of drugs that redirect the immune system to attack cancer cells.
The cell therapy portfolio, built through more than $2.5 billion of acquisitions, including Gracell Biotechnologies and EsoBiotec, could generate $5 to $10 billion in additional revenues by the end of the decade if trials in solid tumours and autoimmune diseases succeed.
Jefferies estimates AstraZeneca must add around $12.5 billion in incremental revenues by 2034 to sustain growth beyond its existing $80 billion 2030 target, a bar it believes the company can clear.
AZ shares were flat at 14,688p.