ASX 200 futures are up 91 points (+1.02%) as of 8:30am AEDT, pointing to a firmer open after a rough Wednesday session that saw risk appetite crack across the board.
Overnight, US markets steadied and then pushed higher, led by the same pockets that have worn the brunt of recent volatility — big tech, high-growth and momentum names. The Nasdaq climbed 1.29% and the S&P 500 added 0.78%, while the VIX slid almost 10% as investors stepped back from the worst-case geopolitical pricing.
That doesn’t mean the backdrop is “all clear”. Energy markets remain sensitive to every headline out of the Middle East, and higher oil still sits awkwardly alongside the idea of rate cuts later this year. But the tone overnight was more constructive: a strong US services read reinforced that activity is holding up, and markets leaned into the view that geopolitics tends to jolt sentiment in the short term rather than dictate the trend for months.
Wall Street finds its feet again
The late-session lift in the US had two supports: the tape and the data.
On the tape, megacaps were back in charge. Amazon rose 3.8% and Tesla 3.4%, helping the broader growth complex regain traction. Tech wasn’t the only winner — consumer discretionary was the standout sector — but the rally had a clear risk-on flavour.
On the data front, the ISM services index jumped its highest level since 2022, while ADP private payrolls also improved in February, which helped cool fears the US economy is rolling over under the weight of higher energy and tighter financial conditions. Bond yields ticked higher, with the US 10-year sitting around 4.08%.
Crypto also turned into a risk barometer overnight. Bitcoin surged back above US$73,000 and Ethereum pushed sharply higher, adding to the sense that investors were rotating back into higher-beta exposures after two choppy sessions.
Commodities lift, but the theme is ‘higher and choppy’
Commodities were broadly firmer, although most moves were off their intraday highs — a reminder that this is still a headline-driven market.
Gold climbed around 1% to about US$5,140/oz after a messy mid-week pullback, while copper added more than 1% as the market balanced global growth signals against ongoing supply-chain uncertainty. Oil remained elevated amid the ongoing Iran conflict, with WTI around US$75–76/bbl, but the bigger story is volatility rather than direction: traders are still trying to price the tug-of-war between supply risk and demand sensitivity if higher fuel costs start biting.
The Australian dollar also bounced, up about 0.6% to roughly US70.8c, reversing part of yesterday’s risk-off slide.
Yesterday’s ASX sell-off was broad, not just ‘war fear’
Locally, Wednesday was a tough one. The ASX 200 fell 1.94% to 8,901, with all 11 sectors in the red and small caps hit even harder. Materials led the declines as miners were marked down aggressively, and the de-risking spread beyond the usual high-beta names.
Part of that was geopolitics, but part of it was also rates. Australia’s December-quarter GDP surprised on the upside (0.8% quarter-on-quarter, 2.6% annual), and the market’s initial reaction was to reassess how long the RBA can sit tight if growth holds up while inflation risks are being re-energised by oil.
In the stock-specific moves, the day had a defensive feel despite the broad red screen. A few pockets held up better — telcos were the “least bad” sector, down just 0.11% — while high-beta and resource names took the brunt. Gold equities were also sold down sharply even as bullion steadied later, a reminder that in a true de-risking session, correlations can do unhelpful things.
What to watch today
The local calendar is light but not empty. Australia’s balance of trade is due at 11:30am AEDT, and markets will also be watching household spending data for any signal on whether demand is cooling or simply uneven. With rate expectations back in play, any evidence the consumer is cracking (or, conversely, hanging in) matters more than usual.
There’s also a chunky ex-dividend list that could mechanically drag on index performance in spots — including BHP, Rio Tinto and Woodside — so today’s headline move may not translate cleanly into underlying market breadth.
Bottom line: futures suggest a strong rebound after yesterday’s washout, and Wall Street’s overnight bounce gives local risk appetite a foothold. But with oil still elevated and rates back in the conversation, this still looks like a market set up for rotation — not a straight-line trend.