- FTSE 100 rises 83 points to 10,567
- Miners and defensives lead rebound
- Weir Group leads fallers after in-line results
- Barratt Redrow and Vistry announce CEOs retiring
5.15pm: In the green
European stocks trimmed some of Tuesday’s losses, with the FTSE 100 adding 83 points to close at 10,567.
“Several European stock indices regained around half of Tuesday's sharp losses with US indices also advancing amid hopes that the conflict in the Middle East will soon ease,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
4.10pm: Footsie supported by miners, banks
As we tick over into the final half hour in London, where the Footsie has recovered almost a quarter of its losses from the previous two days.
Mining and commodities stocks are driving this, with Metlen Energy & Metals, Antofagasta among those benefiting from a small rebound in metals prices.
Financials were also higher, including St James’s Place, ICG, Standard Life and Aviva.
Among the FTSE's largest names, Rolls-Royce is up over 4%, with HSBC and other banks all rising over 1%.
Shell and BP are among the big fallers, down 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.
Weir and Barratt Redrow are bottom of the list, down 10.9% and 2.5% following news from both companies.
3.48pm: Energy prices ease a tad
Oil and gas prices have eased a little today.
Brent crude is down a tad to just over $81 a barrel, having topped $84 earlier in the week.
UK nat gas prices are down at 125p a therm, after topping 160p yesterday morning.
"After the big falls we witnessed in the last couple of days, there were no dramatic moves to be seen today as markets were a lot calmer," says market analyst Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
The mood is "being driven almost entirely by energy prices right now", he says, and "things could unravel again as we head deeper into the US session".
Razaqzada says he remains cautious and "won’t be surprised if we see the selling resume, especially as oil prices continue to hold up well on the dips amid supply disruption fears in the Middle East".
Tentative positivity seems to have stemmed, he reckons, from a New York Times report suggesting Iran had indirectly sounded out the CIA over possible terms to bring the conflict to an end, as well as remarks from the Trump administration that the US Navy would safeguard shipping routes.
"On paper, it all sounds rather comforting. In practice, very little has changed. The conflict is ongoing and there’s no concrete evidence of de-escalation. This could keep pressure on risk assets for a while yet."
2.55pm: US stocks mixed at open
US stocks indices generally opened higher, but the Dow Jones soon dropped into the red, down 39 points at 48,462.
The Nasdaq has climbed 0.6% and the S&P 500 is up 0.1%.
Earlier today, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated his boss's promise that the US will try to help oil shipments in the Gulf region.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said "more forces are arriving" in the region, while Iran continued its retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries for a fifth day.
US media reported that executives from US defence groups, including Lockheed Martin and RTX have been summoned to the White House on Friday to discuss ramping up production of missiles and other weaponry, despite President Trump's comments yesterday that the US had a "virtually unlimited supply".
2.30pm: Broker notes for your delectation
Some new or recycled broker thoughts from today.
European banks are quietly defying the doubters and Citi believes the run isn't over yet, with HSBC Holdings PLC and NatWest Group PLC its top picks.
The recent BT Group rally has left the telecoms giant looking vulnerable, with Deutsche Bank reiterating its 'sell' rating and warning that investors should not mistake a run of good fortune for genuine defensive strength.
UBS has lifted its target price for Tesco while reiterating a positive stance, arguing the retailer offers a combination of stability and growth at a time of heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Citi has lowered its target price for Intercontinental Hotels Group while maintaining a 'sell' recommendation, arguing that weak US lodging demand and growing competition from short-term rental platforms will weigh on the company's medium-term growth.
JP Morgan has lifted its target price for warehouse developer SEGRO, arguing the shares remain one of the best-placed names in European property despite recent market turbulence.
2.12pm: News Corp says news content is like microchips
Last night, News Corp's CEO said the owner of the Times of London, Australian and Dow Jones is now an “input company” for artificial intelligence after the group signed a content licensing deal with Meta Platforms worth up to US$50 million a year.
That framing misreads what is happening, according to a new Proactive analysis of the deal.
Robert Thomson's description less about waving a white flag and more about making an argument about where durable value sits in an AI-driven economy.
As an input, he is saying that news is analogous to semiconductors or data centres, not being modest but making a claim about position in a supply chain.
1.42pm: Iran steadfast
Donald Trump said last night the "worst case" in Iran is that "somebody takes over as bad as the previous regime".
Well, it looks like Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Iran's assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is expected to succeed his father, in a signal that Iran has no intention of moderating its stance.
No official confirmation has been given apart from via some social media speculation, but the Guardian reports he is believed to be the preferred candidate of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
His rigid anti-western views are unlikely to ease tensions with Washington, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Iran's leadership as "religious fanatic lunatics."
Israeli defence minister Gideon Saar has warned that his forces plan to also assassinate the incoming leader.
1.10pm: US futures dithering, bitcoin rallying
US futures are up and down and a bit all over the place. They were firmly in the red earlier, then moved into the green and now they are wavering either side of flat.
Currently, Nasdaq futures are up 0.2% and the S&P 500 just above flat and the Dow Jones just below.
"Investors continue to grapple with the inflationary implications of surging oil prices," says David Morrison at Trade Nation, as the threat of drones and missiles from Iran has effectively blocked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump said yesterday that the US would provide risk insurance and potentially naval escorts for tankers navigating the Persian Gulf to restore crude flows.
But he does not seem to have done enough to calm nerves.
Today sees the release of the ADP private payrolls report, ahead of Friday’s official non-farm payrolls.
On the corporate front, CrowdStrike shares are flat after its earnings overnight, while today sees numbers from Broadcom, Abercrombie & Fitch and Okta.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shot higher this morning, hitting $71,500, its best level since early February.
11.56am: Household living costs in focus
If the conflict in the Middle East drags on, one effect for UK households could be an energy price shock that wipes out anticipated improvement in living standards.
In a new report, the Resolution Foundation calculates that if the Iran conflict had not happened, a typical working-age household would be facing a £300 improvement this year.
However, a rise in oil and gas prices, if the Iran conflict continues to disrupt supplies, could add £500 to typical annual energy bills and one percentage point to UK inflation.
Lower-income households would face an even sharper reversal, Resolution says, as they are (if the US and Israel didn't attack Iran) on track for an £800 rise in living standards this year, largely due to the lifting of the two-child benefit cap. The Foundation warns that all those gains could be wiped out if energy prices keep rising.
11.36am: FTSE rebounding
The FTSE 100 has been recovering in the latter part of the morning. Miners, led by Antofagasta, are fueling this, along with rebounds for other stocks hit in recent days.
Gains were also seen across consumer and financial names including Entain, Next, Standard Life, Fresnillo and InterContinental Hotels.
Many of the index's largest names are rising this morning, with AstraZeneca, HSBC, Rolls-Royce, GSK, NatWest and BAT up around 1% or more.
Only around a quarter of the index is in red now.
“If yesterday was capitulation, today is investors catching their breath,” says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, clarifying that Tuesday was dominated by profit taking on stocks that had served markets well in recent weeks and months, such as defence stocks and gold.
“More stability on the markets is welcome not only for sentiment but also as it might give certain investors the confidence to go hunting for bargains and drive a new wave of buying.
“What could hold people back from bargain hunting is ongoing uncertainty over energy prices and whether they will stay elevated. If they do, it implies a change in thinking for interest rate expectations and that has major implications for asset valuations."
It's not just London, European markets are up even more, with Spain's IBEX 35 gaining 2%, Germany's DAX rising 1.6%, while the CAC 40 has risen 1.2% in Paris.
10.53am: Lloyds to beef up insurance arm
Lloyds Banking Group is reportedly "in pole position" after a first round of bidding for Aegon’s UK business, according to the Financial News website.
Standard Life (the new name for Phoenix Group) and Canada Life have also submitted initial offers.
Aegon UK, which was put up for sale by the Dutch insurer in December, could be valued at around £1-1.5 billion, the report said.
10.10am: Does the PMI data affect BoE calculations?
The February PMI data "continues to signal that GDP growth was picking up smartly in the new year, but war in the Middle East will no doubt hit sentiment in March", says economist Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics, after the February composite PMI held at its joint highest level since August 2024.
The readings so far in Q1 are consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.3-0.4% in Q1, he says, with the average of his forecasts pointing to a 0.3% quarterly GDP rise, which matches the Bank of England's forecast but is very close to rounding up to a 0.4% gain.
Wood notes that the services output price balance was revised down by a "huge" 1.5 points, so "no longer points to accelerating underlying services inflation, but the output price balance is still bouncing around the strongest readings since H1 2025 and is consistent with underlying services inflation holding close to 4.0% in the next three months".
All told, he sees "little in the PMI to support multiple rate cuts from the MPC this year".
Taking in the events in the Middle East, he says, "for now we have pushed back our call for the next Bank Rate cut to April, from March previously and feel more comfortable with our forecast of only one rate cut this year".
9.47am: PMIs for Feb largely flat
The UK services sector was stable last month, according to a fresh purchasing managers index survey from S&P Global/CIPS.
February's services PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.0 in January, in line with the flash estimate.
The composite PMI was 53.7 in February, unchanged from January but below the flash reading of 53.9.
"Business activity continued to pick up across the UK service economy in February, with growth holding close to the five-month high seen at the start of 2026," said S&P Global's Tim Moore.
"Survey respondents commented on rising new business intakes and improving sales pipelines. This was linked to greater business and consumer spending, especially in domestic markets.
"Export orders were relatively subdued, however, and the rate of expansion slipped to a three-month low."
There was a reduction in employment numbers, despite the sustained recovery in business activity, reflecting companies' efforts to boost productivity and mitigate rising input costs.
"Higher payroll costs were widely cited as leading to a strong pace of overall input cost inflation. Greater food prices and technology costs were also reported in February. This contributed to another robust increase in prices charged by service providers, with the pace of inflation little-changed from January's five-month high," Moore said.
9.16am: Smaller moves on FTSE so far
After just over an hour, the FTSE 100 is still being dragged fairly equally in both directions, with the index down 3 points at 10,481.
Weir Group, which has dropped more than 8%, after full-year results led to profit taking, remains the biggest fallers.
Financials and housing stocks are under pressure, with London Stock Exchange Group, HSBC, Barratt Redrow and Persimmon among the fallers.
Elsewhere oil heavyweights BP and Shell have also slipped, contributing to a broadly softer start for the index.
Among the top risers are copper miner Antofagasta and defence contractor BAE Systems.
The index is indicating "signs of a floor having been reached in the UK, at least temporarily," says market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor.
"It remains to be seen whether this tentative climb is the beginning of a recovery having priced in the implications of the conflict, or whether it is simply a relief rally buoyed by some investors choosing to buy on the dip.
"In any event, the primary index remains relatively unscathed, with its 5.7% gain in the year to date lower than previous highs but showing some signs of the defensive resilience which has been an investment attraction to global investors in the recent past."
8.59am: Vistry tumbles
Vistry shares have tumbled 16%, leading the housebuilding sector lower, as it signalled it will prioritise sales growth and cash generation over margins in the early part of this year.
Its full-year results were broadly in line with expectations, with investors focused on the outlook where Vistry said sales so far in the open market were up over 40% on last year, "primarily reflecting the success of the targeted pricing initiatives", ie offering pricing incentives to attract buyers.
Analysts at Stifel said the strategy likely to come at a cost to margin, "which is likely to see consensus expectations fall", by around 5-10%.
Barratt Redrow is down 1.7% and Bellway 1.5%.
8.35am: Iran says 'we can continue war as long as we want'
Some choice quotes on the wires that indicate Iran is in no mood for capitulation.
"Iran says no talks with US, war can continue," is the Bloomberg headline.
An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said Tehran has “no intention of conducting negotiations with the United States” and could continue the conflict “for as long as we want”.
Iran’s foreign minister also criticised US policy, saying: "When complex nuclear negotiations are treated like a real estate transaction… the outcome? Bombing the negotiation table out of spite," adding that Donald Trump had “betrayed diplomacy and Americans who elected him".
8.25am: FTSE indecisive at open
The FTSE 100 has started indecisively, dropping a few points initially, then moving into positive territory and now down 6 points at 10,478.
Leading the downside is Weir Group, down 6.9% on the back of final results.
There are a group of housbuilders in the red, with Persimmon dragged down along with Barratt, after Vistry's results that came with news that it has taken a promotional stance to accelerate open market sales.
The leaderboard is topped by Experian, Intertek, Tesco and Pearson.
7.57am: FTSE heading for modestly positive open?
There are still mixed signals for the FTSE ahead of the imminent open, with spread betters predicting a gain and futures pointing to a small loss.
Here's some thoughts from market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB. "The capitulation in European markets on Tuesday led to a massive shake out for global markets. The selling was indiscriminate and all sectors, including energy, came under intense downward pressure.
"Typically, capitulation sell offs do not last.
"Equity index futures are pointing to a mildly higher open for the FTSE 100 and other European indices today.
"There may be some mild optimism that President Trump’s plan to get oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz could boost risk sentiment on Wednesday, although the risks remain to the downside.
"There are signs that that the conflict may have financial repercussions for the region. Chinese investors are planning to scale back exposure to Middle Eastern debt, which is a blow to Saudi Arabia and the UAE."
She notes that the rise in energy prices today are milder than earlier this week, with Brent crude back above $83 per barrel and the European natural gas price is up another 20% and has risen 93% in the last five days.
"Although these gains are moderate compared to the spikes in price we have seen in recent days, they suggest that there is some skepticism in the shipping market about President Trump’s plan for US warships to escort tankers through the Gulf of Hormuz and underwrite insurance."
She concludes: "Until there is a pause in this conflict and free flowing oil around the world, it is hard to see how markets can stage a meaningful recovery. We expect stocks and bonds to remain nervous and driven by headline risk."
7.48am: Two builders' bosses leaving
Barratt Redrow chief executive David Thomas is set to retire after 11 years in the role, with former Balfour Beatty divisional boss Dean Banks appointed as his successor.
Banks, currently CEO of an NZ and Australian infrastructure firm, will join the housebuilder in the final quarter of 2026 and take over as group chief executive once Thomas steps down.
Thomas, who has been at the North East-headquartered company for 17 years, will stay with the business until March 2027 to ensure a smooth transition.
And elsewhere in the housebuilding sector, Vistry Group has said its executive chairman and CEO Greg Fitzgerald will retire as chair at the company’s annual meeting in May and will remain in the chief executive role for 12 months or until a successor is appointed.
The FTSE 250 builder also reported annual results broadly in line with expectations and signalled a renewed focus on cash generation.
7.25am: Europe 'set to be more robust today'
Losses in Asia are driven by AI-names in a reversal of market trends that have dominated in recent years, and US dollar strength has also weighed, says Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown.
"But futures for Europe suggest a more robust open – the FTSE 100 is currently on track to open flat, and futures for France, Italy and Germany are edging into positive territory.
"The old-economy nature of the region, a headwind in recent years, is proving a boon. This underlines the importance of portfolio diversification in times of market stress."
As for what comes next, Wall says the key Strait of Hormuz is the focus of markets.
"Some Gulf states do have other trade routes available, using Red Sea pipelines, and the US – one of the world’s biggest oil producers – is far removed from the conflict, at least geographically.
"A number of oil exporters including Saudi Arabia, and indeed importers such as China, also have reserves outside of the conflict zone which can provide some buffer, but are finite."
She notes that some investors are "questioning whether this triggers a financial crisis; a toxic combination of asset prices collapsing coupled with recession".
But this is not her base-case scenario, as "the US military is a global strength, and the President has made it clear restoring global energy supply is a priority.
"The downward pressure on stocks is likely to continue until this crucial trade route is made safe. Once secured however, we expect markets to return to optimism – with the volatility we have come to anticipate as the norm under a Trump presidency."
7.16am: FTSE 100 futures point lower as Asian stocks still plunging
The FTSE 100's potential start on Wednesday was not clear before the open, with stocks in Asia continuing to plummet over fears about the extent of the war in the Middle East.
Futures for the London index were pointing to a drop of 34 points, while spread-betters on the IG platform were looking for a small rise of around seven points.
Yesterday the index slumped 296 points lower or 2.75% to 10,484.13, while falls in Europe were even sharper, with the benchmarks in Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Milan down between 3.5% and 4.5%.
US stocks were again less worried, maybe reassured by their own energy supplies, with the Dow Jones dropping 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell around 1%.
This morning, Asian markets have continued to decline sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei sliding 3.6%, South Korea's Kospi plummeting over 12% and the Hang Seng down 2.6% in Hong Kong.
"We are in the headline-watching business at the moment, with competing stories shifting market sentiment an hourly basis," says Deusche Bank macro strategist Jim Reid.
"Moreover, the selloff has yet to find a floor, as fears of a more protracted Middle East conflict have led to mounting concern about a serious energy shock."
Brent crude oil futures are hovering just below $84, while UK and European natural gas prices remain elevated too.