4.09pm: Nasdaq finishes worst off as tech hit
US stocks closed firmly in the red on Tuesday, with selling pressure persisting into the final hour but losses much reduced from early levels.
In the background, the fourth day of attacks on Iran continued, with the widening conflict raising worries about effects on the global economy.
Worst hit on Wall Street was the Nasdaq Composite, sliding 1% to 22,516.69 as weakness in tech weighed.
The Dow Jones ended down 403 points, or 0.8%, at 48,501.27, while the S&P 500 fell 0.94% to 6,816.63.
Semiconductor stocks dominated the Nasdaq 100’s fallers list, pointing to pressure on the AI and hardware trade.
Micron, Western Digital and Seagate led declines among memory and storage names, while Lam Research, KLA, Applied Materials and ASML were also sharply lower.
Intel and Marvell added to the weakness, suggesting broad-based selling across the semiconductor complex rather than stock-specific moves.
Four of the Mag 7 tech giants fell, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Tesla.
3.35pm: Missiles, software and oil notes
A few interesting broker notes from today.
Analysts at Citi see recent events in the Middle East as reinforcing the armaments 'megatrend', arguing growth expectations across the sector still look too conservative.
The bank flagged RTX, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Karman Holdings and Ducommun as particularly sensitive to the theme, given their exposure to missile and interceptor systems.
According to a separate note from Jefferies, however, US strikes on Iran are likely to reinforce, rather than radically accelerate, rising demand for missiles and interceptors. Lockheed and Raytheon are seen as the primary beneficiaries for Jefferies.
Software stocks remain under pressure as investors grapple with what Wedbush dubs the “AI Ghost Trade” – fears that artificial intelligence tools from Anthropic, OpenAI and others could hollow out traditional enterprise software budgets.
The note argues the market is “baking in a worst-case scenario”, with speculation that AI deployments could cannibalise seat-based pricing in software-as-a-service models and slash IT budgets by as much as 70%.
Elsewhere, RBC Capital Markets warns of oil prices into the $100s per barrel if fighting and disruption to energy markets persists from the Iran conflict.
3.02pm: Trump promises support for energy shipments through Gulf
President Trump says he has ordered the US to provide risk insurance for shipping through the Gulf region, with US Navy ships to escort tankers through the key Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said in a social media post that he has ordered the US Development Finance Corporation to provide "political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf".
"This will be available to all shipping lines," he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
"If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. No matter what, the United States will ensure the free flow of energy to the world."
Oil prices and natural gas had already reversed much of their gains from earlier in the day, with WTI at under $74 a barrel again. US natural gas futures are around $3.11 per MMBtu.
2.27pm: Tech and miners lead falls
US stocks are edging back towards flat as the afternoon session wears on, with the size of losses much reduced from initial plunges.
The Dow is down just 0.65% now at 48,585, compared to a 2.6% decline in the first hour.
The S&P is off 0.8% at 6,828, with over 130 of the 500 companies' shares in green now.
The Nasdaq is 0.9% lower, with heaviest falls centred on chipmakers and hardware names, with Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, Lam Research, Applied Materials and KLA all down between 5% and 8%.
Losses are concentrated in tech and semiconductors, with miners and materials stocks also under pressure, including Newmont, Albemarle and Freeport-McMoRan, echoing commodity-linked drops in Asia and Europe earlier, while also pointing to a wider risk-off move.
Small caps have also halved their losses, with the Russell 2000 down 1.2%.
12.57pm: How long will disruption last?
US stocks remain roughly where they were an hour ago.
Stocks were rocked initially as concerns spread from the oil markets to the bond markets due to the fear of higher inflation, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing 13 basis points this week.
"Generally speaking, military actions cause a short-term disruption in markets, but as long as the economic damage is limited, they fully recover once there is more clarity in the scope of the intervention," he says.
"We are in the early days of this military campaign, which we have been told will last 4-5 weeks, so it is too soon to tell how events will unfold this month, but we are looking for opportunities to present themselves if traders overreact and throw the baby out with the bathwater."
Others have also been highlighting that the pattern of the conflict is mirroring other interventions in Trump's second term.
Analyst Adam Kobessi says his view is that while President Trump has made references to a "forever" war, this is likely just part of his "dealmaker" persona and far from his real aim.
"Why? Because three of President Trump's top policy priorities are to be the "peace president," eliminate inflation, and lower US gas prices to $2.00 per gallon.
"A prolonged war with Iran would work in the opposite direction of these key initiatives, particularly in the short-term during a crucial midterm election year."
The S&P 500, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, and Bonds are ALL down sharply. But, why?
What's happening right now is a modest rush to the sidelines.
This is a CLEAR and consistent part of President Trump's negotiation strategy, we are at Step #5 of our "Conflict Playbook."
— Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) March 3, 2026
12.03pm: Stock losses trimmed
At midday, stock losses have been trimmed a little, though major indices remain firmly in the red.
The Nasdaq lower by 1.5%, the Dow is down 1.45% and the S&P is off 1.4%, while the Russell 2000 continues to lag, down just over 2%.
Strategist Joe Mazzola at Charles Schwab said: "After a display of resilience Monday, stocks tumbled early today as fighting spread across the Middle East and crude oil spiked again.
"Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil flows out of the Persian Gulf, raising concerns that a surge in energy prices could lift US inflation and delay rate cuts.
"Treasury yields, which initially slid when the conflict began edged up this morning and pain afflicted nearly every market sector. Market volatility flared."
As of this morning, the CME FedWatch Tool sees less than 3% odds of a Fed rate cut this month, he notes, with odds for a mid-year cut falling sharply from yesterday.
"Futures trading now anticipates the pause in rates likely lasting until September, penciling in just 37% chances of any rate cut by the Fed's June meeting. July is more of a 50-50 proposition. Investors now see more likelihood of one or two cuts this year, pulling back on chances of three or more."
Though the fighting in the Middle East is the main focus, he flags that the coming days are packed with jobs data in the build-up to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
After the earnings from Target and Best Buy, this will be followed later today by cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike, putting focus back on the software sector, while chip giant Broadcom posts numbers tomorrow. Later in the week comes Costco and Alibaba.
11.09am: Retailers among rare S&P risers
Just over 30 companies on the S&P 500 are in green, led by Best Buy and Target on the back of earnings released this morning.
Best Buy topped the table after its earnings beat, rising 4.4%.
Chief executive Corie Barry said the company was “pleased to report better-than-expected profitability”, adding that while comparable sales declined, market share was “at least flat”, pointing to softer overall demand across the industry during the holiday period.
Target rose 4% after the retailer also beat EPS expectations for its fourth quarter, as margins improved despite softer sales.
10.32am: Iran is 'not just oil any more' as AWS damage moves dial
US stocks have extended their slide, with selling accelerating asthe first hour of trading ticks past.
The Dow is now down 1,244 points or 2.5% at 47,650, while its descent has been overtaken by the Nasdaq, which has plunged 2.7% to 22,126. The S&P has fallen roughly 2.5% to 6,711.
For the Nasdaq it is the lowest since 20 November, with the Dow at its lowest since early December and the S&P at its lowest since mid-December.
Small caps are under the heaviest pressure, with the Russell 2000 down about 3.5%, though this only takes it back to where it was in early January.
Before markets opened, it was suggested by market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation that the S&P will need to experience a significant and protracted break below 6,730, "to suggest that the market may have topped".
"Otherwise, the bulls will see another buying opportunity," he said.
This is "irrespective of how the US-Israeli war against Iran proceeds, although it is adding to uncertainty", he said, with the market consensus seeming to him to be "that the bulk of the action will be over by the end of this month".
Amazon Web Services said overnight that two data centres in the UAE were hit by drone strikes, with another facility in Bahrain damaged by a nearby attack, as Iran retaliated to the strikes by the US and Israel.
Kenny Polcari at Slatestone said "that is enough to shift the conversation" as it begs the question "could data centers become targets?
"Because if they are, that’s a new level of escalation. We’re not talking about oil pipelines or shipping lanes anymore. We’re talking about digital infrastructure – the backbone of cloud services, financial systems, government networks, AI workloads, payment systems, logistics platforms – everything."
"If markets begin to believe those are vulnerable in conflict zones then so much more changes… risk premiums change. Insurance costs change. Redundancy planning changes. Capex shifts. Valuation multiples adjust – especially in tech.
"That’s why this morning feels heavier. This isn’t just about oil anymore."
9.55am: Widespread selling at the open
Wall Street has opened sharply lower, with heavy selling across the board in early trade.
The Dow Jones is down over 1,000 points or 2.3% at 47,843, while the Nasdaq has dropped 2.2% and the S&P 500 has fallen 2.1%.
The small-cap Russell 2000 is off 3.1% after almost 30 minutes into the session.
All but one of the Dow is in the red, with Verizon the exception. Biggest fallers on the blue-chip index are Caterpillar, down 4.6%, Sherwin-Williams, down 3.6%, Goldman Sachs, down 3.2% and Boeing, down 3%.
On the Nasdaq 100, Western Digital, Micron, Intel, Seagate, Ferrovial, ARM, and ASML were all down over 5%.
'Mag 7' giants Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla are all down around 2%, with Apple and Microsoft down less than 1%.
8.15am: Iran fighting latest
US and Israeli fighter jets have continued air strikes across Iran, while Israeli troops have entered Lebanon.
US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been temporarily shuttered after retaliatory drone attacks from Iran.
Americans in the region were urged to "depart now", with nonemergency personnel in six Gulf states ordered to leave.
Israel's air force said it was attacking both Tehran and Beirut with “extensive strikes” against the Iranian regime and Hezbollah.
President Trump, meanwhile, said in a social media post that it is "too late" for talks with Iran.
"Their air defense, air force, navy, and leadership is gone," Trump wrote in a short Truth Social post this morning. "They want to talk. I said 'Too Late!'"
Yesterday he also said "wars can be fought forever" and the US has "unlimited mid to upper tier weaponry."
Iran's top national security official yesterday also rejected the idea of talks, following the assassination by missile of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In the Gulf, Qatar's state-owned energy company has announced it is halting production on some downstream products including urea, polymers, methanol and aluminum.
The company previously announced that it had halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. QatarEnergy is one of the biggest producers of LNG in the world.
7.25am: Nasdaq set to lead sharp fall as markets take Iran conflict more seriously
Wall Street equity investors looked more rattled ahead of Tuesday’s session, as global markets moved firmly into risk-off mode as the conflict widened in the Middle East.
Tech stocks were set to take the brunt of selling, after shugging off the US and Israel's strikes on Iran at the start of the week.
Futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq were down 2.1% ahead of Tuesday's open, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures both down around 1.7%.
Nvidia was down 2.7% in pre-market trading, while names like Micron and Seagate down over 4% and SanDisk 6.2% lower. Airlines were also heading for a fall, as flights to the region look set to be cancelled for the foreseeable.
Investors are coming into US markets on the back foot after mounting global uncertainty about the war in Iran led to sharp selling in Europe and Asia.
London's FTSE 100 slumped 2.5%, with the German DAX plunged 3.7%, while in Asia, the Korean Kospi plummted 7.2%, Japan's Nikkei dropped 3.1% and in China the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%.
The slide reflected renewed concern about geopolitical tensions and their effect on risk assets, pushing energy and commodity prices higher and weighing on more cyclical stocks.
Oil prices continued to climb, with WTI jumping another 7.3% to $76.38 a barrel, the highest since the start of last year, though gold and silver prices softened.
Inflationary impact of Iran conflict
"Markets are being hit hard, as the full inflationary impact of the war in Iran truly comes home to roost," said market analyst Joshua Mahony at Scope Markets.
According to Bloomberg, a sustained $10 increase in oil could add 0.2-0.5% to CPI and drive GDP 0.1-0.3% lower, with a bigger impact if crude hit $100.
"Coming off the back of a period where precious metals seemed to be the only game in town, the rise in the US dollar and surging inflation expectations have dented sentiment for gold and silver despite the geopolitical concerns," Mahony added.
Oil and natural gas prices were being hit by the recent removal of insurance coverage for ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz, effectively closing the key shipping lane.
"While the US claims that the Straits of Hormuz remains open following the destruction of much of the Iranian Navy, the cancellation of insurance coverage and Iranian threats of that ships will be set ablaze for passing through the passage mean that journeys have slowed to a trickle," Mahony noted.
"This means that oil prices are likely to rise as long as this conflict rages on, with this key bottleneck proving to be one of Iran’s most important points of leverage as they seek to pressure the US President through higher inflation and destruction of key facilities for US allies in the region."