Gold has resumed outperforming the dollar in a development Deutsche Bank calls a “positive crossover”, reinforcing its constructive stance on precious metals.
The bank says gold has shifted from underperformance to outperformance versus the US dollar based on its trailing 60-day beta.
That marks a break from weakness seen since late January and is viewed as “an encouraging context” for its bullish outlook.
The move comes despite headwinds, including tech-led equity volatility and hawkish Federal Reserve comments.
While the recent US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may have been marginally supportive for gold, Deutsche suggests it is not a decisive driver.
The broader point is that gold is “showing early signs of re-exhibiting a positive divergence from the USD beta”, something the bank says its USD 6,000 per ounce forecast effectively requires. If gold were to match the degree of outperformance seen in 2024-25, prices could even align more closely with USD 6,900 per ounce.
Silver is also drawing attention. Deutsche notes a “resumption of white metals outperformance versus gold”, with the gold-silver ratio falling to 57. Strong options positioning and renewed Shanghai backwardation suggest upside risk to its USD 100 per ounce year-end silver forecast.