The data and markets group beat on earnings per share and raised its dividend 15%, then gave investors something they had wanted for years: a credible forward roadmap
London Stock Exchange Group PLC (LSE:LSEG) delivered full-year 2025 results broadly in line with expectations on Thursday before doing something more interesting: unveiling a £3 billion share buyback, a new set of medium-term financial targets and the long-awaited retirement of its Annual Subscription Value metric. The shares jumped 6% to around 8,274p.
The headline numbers were solid rather than spectacular. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of £4.52 billion came in fractionally ahead of consensus, while organic constant-currency revenue growth reached 7.1% against a 7% forecast.
The cleaner beat came at the earnings per share line, where adjusted EPS of 420.6p ran 1.3% above expectations, helped by financing costs that came in well below forecast in the second half. UBS analysts, who had pencilled in EPS of 413.6p, described the overall market reaction as likely to be positive.
The dividend surprised to the upside, too. LSEG declared a full-year payout of 150p per share, 15% above the prior year and around 5% ahead of consensus. Combined with the £3 billion buyback commitment, which exceeded market expectations and begins with an immediate £750 million tranche, the capital return package was the clearest positive of the morning.
The decision to retire ASV at year-end 2026 will matter to analysts covering the stock almost as much as the financial results. The metric has long been criticised for obscuring the health of the subscription business. Its replacement by retention rates, rolling 12-month gross sales and a new Vitality Index represents the transparency shift many investors had been pushing for.
Looking further out, LSEG set 2027-2029 targets for mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth, 150 basis points of cumulative EBITDA margin improvement and double-digit free cash flow per share growth. UBS, which holds a 'buy' rating with an 11,000p price target.
Elliott Management's emergence as a shareholder in LSEG has set up one of the more interesting confrontations in UK financial services this year.
The activist firm is pushing LSEG's management on three fronts: accelerate share buybacks to £5 billion in 2026, squeeze more from the cost base, and conduct a root-and-branch portfolio review.
Whether this update quells Elliott's dissent remains to be seen.