Citi leans bullish despite acknowledging price direction remains uncertain, citing multiple tailwinds converging in coming months.
Copper could reach $14,000 per tonne within three months, driven by Chinese supply-chain restocking after Lunar New Year holidays and continued dip-buying from investors, according to Citi's latest commodities note.
The bank sees a "bullish risk-reward skew" despite difficulty calling price direction with conviction. Three key factors support upside: investor appetite to price in cyclical growth optimism, increasing hard asset exposure tied to 'de-dollarisation' and resource security themes, and potential supply disappointments.
China's post-holiday restocking typically provides seasonal support
Chinese manufacturers returning from CNY holidays have historically created demand spikes as factories rebuild inventories. This year's restocking phase coincides with broader investor interest in commodities as inflation hedges and dollar alternatives.
Citi maintains its $13,000 per tonne average forecast for 2026, unchanged from previous guidance. The bank believes this level will broadly balance global physical copper markets throughout the year, though near-term momentum could push prices higher before settling.
Supply disruptions remain a wild card that could accelerate gains beyond current projections.