Ashmore Group has been upgraded to 'buy' by Jefferies, which argues that the latest inflow data marks “a cyclical reboot” for emerging markets.
The broker said the fourth quarter of 2025 “marked a turning point in the EM cycle”, with Ashmore delivering $2.6 billion of net new money.
Around half of gross inflows came from new mandates, signalling that “institutions are rebuilding EM exposure rather than making tactical top-ups”.
Jefferies believes this is “the first phase of a potential multi-quarter recovery in ASHM’s flow trajectory”.
While the more than 20% annualised inflow rate is unlikely to be repeated, it said EM flow recoveries are typically “lumpy, but when they turn, they tend to accelerate”.
The note also highlights a more diversified business mix. Equities and alternatives now account for about 20% of assets under management and roughly 30% of fees, providing “higher-margin, less cyclical revenue streams”.
Despite a recent rally, shares remain below 2016 levels, when a similar asset base preceded roughly $20 billion of cumulative inflows and a doubling in the stock price.
Jefferies raised its price target to 285p, applying a 13 times multiple to 2027 earnings, and said it sees “an attractive risk-reward” if inflows broaden beyond institutions.