The prediction market has swung sharply bearish, with bets on a recovery to $75,000 or above effectively abandoned and the downside scenarios pulling in millions in volume
With four days left in February, Polymarket bettors have largely given up on Bitcoin finishing the month anywhere near where it started. The market has repriced aggressively to the downside, and the numbers now reflect a token in serious trouble.
The scale of the sentiment shift is stark. The $85,000 level, which bettors not long ago priced at 71%, has collapsed to under 1%.
The $80,000 and $75,000 thresholds sit at 1% and 2% respectively, with the latter having dropped 67 percentage points, the sharpest move on the board.
The action has migrated entirely to the downside markets. A breach of $60,000 before the month closes is now priced at 42%, up 5 points and the single most contested outcome on the platform, with nearly $3 million in volume traded.
The $55,000 level carries 9% odds despite having fallen 41 points, suggesting the initial panic bid has cooled, but the risk has not disappeared.
Even $50,000, which would represent a devastating collapse from recent highs, is pricing at 2% with over $4.5 million in volume, the heaviest on the page.
The crowd's message is unambiguous. A recovery is not the base case. Capital is flowing into bets on how far down Bitcoin goes, not whether it bounces.