Wedbush reiterated its bullish stance on IMAX Corp (NYSE:IMAX), maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $46 price target ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter results, citing continued market share gains and a favorable content pipeline.
Shares of IMAX traded hands at about $37 on Monday afternoon, up almost 40% in the last 12 months.
The analysts kept IMAX on the firm’s Best Ideas List, pointing to expectations that the company will benefit from an increase in filmed-for-IMAX (FFI) titles between 2026 and 2028.
Wedbush wrote that the anticipated expansion in premium-format content, alongside growing contributions from local-language films and alternative programming, should support further global box office share gains.
“The 2025 – 2026 global film slate underscores IMAX’s growing prominence in Hollywood and worldwide as an essential partner for major theatrical releases across genres, languages, and geographies,” the analysts wrote.
Wedbush also highlighted IMAX’s expanding global footprint and the potential for operating leverage as key drivers of longer-term profitability. The firm believes these factors could position the company to surpass 50% adjusted EBITDA margins by 2028.
The analysts wrote that IMAX’s Q4 market share gains demonstrate what they view as re-accelerating growth. They added that the company’s valuation remains justified given what Wedbush described as a “trifecta” of growth drivers, including the upcoming FFI slate, footprint expansion, and improving operating leverage.
Wedbush expects the company to post Q4 revenue of $121 million, up from its prior $118 million forecast and roughly in line with consensus estimates.
The firm raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $47 million from $46 million, compared with consensus expectations of $52 million, noting some estimates include non-controlling interests while its base figure does not. Wedbush’s adjusted EBITDA estimate including non-controlling interests is $53 million.
The firm maintained its Q4 earnings per share estimate of $0.43, versus the consensus of $0.46.
Regionally, Wedbush said IMAX outperformed its prior box office expectations outside North America. Q4 domestic box office totaled $112 million versus the firm’s $145 million estimate, while China reached $100 million compared with its $71 million forecast. International markets excluding China generated $124 million versus the firm’s $91 million estimate, bringing total global IMAX box office to $336 million, ahead of the firm’s prior $307 million projection.
Wedbush noted that IMAX gained market share across all regions in the fourth quarter, capturing more than 5% of North American box office, nearly 6% in China despite representing only about 1% of screens, and over 4% internationally, compared with roughly 2% over the past four years.
Looking ahead, the analysts pointed to IMAX’s December investor day guidance calling for approximately 12% year-over-year growth in global IMAX box office to about $1.4 billion in 2026, system installation growth of roughly 8% to between 160 and 175 units, and adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-40% range.
Wedbush said continued expansion in filmed-for-IMAX, alternative, and local-language content, combined with a growing total addressable market, should reinforce IMAX’s strategic positioning with exhibitors. The firm expects the company’s revenue growth trajectory and box office momentum to support margin expansion toward the end of the decade.
IMAX is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings after market close on February 25.