Global markets are heading into a week shaped by a mix of trade policy uncertainty, key corporate earnings, and economic data.
Following last week’s US Supreme Court decision striking down the Trump administration’s previous tariff measures, attention has turned to how the administration plans to replace the revenue stream.
Over the weekend, President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs to 15%, citing Section 122 of the Trade Act. That statute allows for a temporary tariff of 150 days without Congressional approval, leaving questions over exemptions, refunds of previously collected tariffs, and the impact on deficit projections.
Deutsche Bank analysts note that while the Supreme Court ruling itself was widely anticipated, the timing and administration response could affect medium-term economic and fiscal outcomes. “The timing and structure of refunds of previously collected tariffs could have implications for the medium-term outlook,” the bank said.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, highlighted the ongoing uncertainty around the tariff narrative. She noted that while Trump’s latest move triggered confusion, “no major selloff” has occurred, and markets are weighing whether corporate refunds from previously ruled-illegal tariffs could offset the impact of new levies.
Brooks also suggested that the situation could support European equities over US markets in the near term and may contribute to continued weakness in the dollar.
Investors will also be watching a number of scheduled economic releases, including Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January. Analysts expect modest increases in both headline and core PPI, though components that feed into the core PCE deflator, used by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflation, may be more closely scrutinized.
The Federal Reserve’s leadership is active this week. Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to deliver an economic outlook speech on Monday, followed by a keynote address on Tuesday. Several other Fed officials, including Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, Boston’s Susan Collins, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic, and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, are also slated to speak, providing markets with insight into policymakers’ views on inflation, labor markets, and emerging risks such as the impact of artificial intelligence on employment.
Corporate earnings will also be in focus, with Nvidia expected to release quarterly results on February 25 after markets close. Analysts anticipate robust revenue and net income growth driven by AI demand and other business segments, which could support the company’s share price.
Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to deliver his second State of the Union address on Tuesday, which could influence markets depending on statements regarding trade policy, defense, or foreign policy initiatives, including any potential actions involving Iran. Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel, with any geopolitical developments likely to impact prices.
“Thus, after a period when fundamentals and economic data have moved financial markets, geopolitics could be back in focus this week,” Brooks concluded.