Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU) reports full-year results on 17 March, and the numbers Deutsche Bank is watching most closely sit inside the cash flow statement rather than the headline profit line.
The bank, which rates the stock a 'buy' with a 1,355p price target, forecasts new business value of $2.7 billion, embedded value of $39.3 billion, IFRS operating profit of $3.25 billion and a dividend of 25.44 cents per share for the year.
The more consequential disclosure, in Deutsche's view, will be the updated cash profile of new business. Prudential has made improving new business cash generation a central strategic priority as it works towards its target of more than $4.4 billion in operating free surplus generation.
Hong Kong and Singapore drove a 36% improvement in the cash generation of 2024 new business, according to Deutsche, and new business written in the first half of 2025 showed a further 27% improvement.
Investors will be looking for evidence that momentum has been sustained through the second half and that the improvement is broadening beyond those two markets.
The geographic mix of the results will also matter. Hong Kong and Singapore have been the engine of recent progress, but Prudential's long-term growth case rests on the scale of its distribution across Southeast Asia and Africa.
Any update on how those markets are developing relative to the two anchor businesses will inform views on whether the cash generation trajectory is structural or concentrated in a handful of high-performing markets.