- FTSE 100 down 2 points at 10,684
- Trump threatens 'more obnoxious' tariffs
- Precious metals in demand amid new tariff uncertainty
- Johnson Matthey slashes price of catalyst disposal
4.48pm: FTSE steady
Despite the sell-off on Wall Street, the FTSE 100 finished Monday’s session little changed, down 2 points at 10,684.
“Investors looking for a safe haven from tariff madness and worries about Iran could do a lot worse than the FTSE 100 right now,” IG's Chris Beauchamp said. “The index seems impervious to worries about US trade policy and the potential for a US-Iran conflict, holding steady today while US stocks fall back.”
4.05pm: FTSE dips, Wall Street plunges
The FTSE has dropped back into the red, as the market reacts badly to Trump's invective, with US stocks dropping sharply.
Across the pond, the Dow Jones is down over 750 points or 1.6%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling 1.4% and 1.2%.
It makes the London index seem like a relative haven for investors.
"Friday’s initial bounce following the court decision has given way to caution, as the administration attempts to pivot seamlessly to new tariff weapons while also doing their best to panic investors about the rule of law in the US with some spicy Truth Social posts," says IG's Chris Beauchamp.
"The panic-trade trinity of gold, oil and the VIX made a return to our screens today, all three rising as social media filled up with fresh updates on US deployments to the Middle East and reports emerging from all sides in the region."
3.35pm: Tariff confusion
More tariff to-and-fro.
Brussels has postponed a vote on the EU’s trade deal with the US after Trump's threat to impose a new blanket 15% global tariff.
The European Parliament’s trade committee, which had been due to vote tomorrow about whether to adopt a deal, held a meeting today.
Committee chair Bernd Lange said the new temporary US tariff could mean increased levies for some EU exports, "nobody can make sense of it anymore", especially what will happen after the new tariffs expire in 150 days.
2.55pm: Wall Street opens lower
US stocks opened in the red, as expected.
The Dow Jones is at the front of the retreat, down 0.8%, with the S&P 500 falling 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.5%.
Biggest fallers on the Dow are Salesforce.com, down 4.3%, Nike, down 3.1%, then American Express, Microsoft and Amazon, all down over 2%.
As the opening bell in Wall Street rang, the FTSE got a sizeable boost, going from a rise of 23 points to almost 50, before this has ebbed away again.
1.34pm: JPM says FTSE and other non-US stocks can continue good run
We are still in a "Goldilocks" market, according to JPMorgan strategists, which reckons non-US stocks can continue to outperform in coming months.
Despite the US military build-up around Iran and US tariffs being reset, the bank argues the growth-inflation mix remains equity-friendly as we wrap up the second month of the year.
Earnings are holding up, activity data is solid, inflation is softening and long bond yields have drifted lower, Fed funds futures are pricing more easing despite three-year highs in ISM readouts and a punchy payrolls print. Not exactly stagflation.
"The strong equity rally can lead to derisking episodes," the bank's strategists say, ie pull-backs, "and particularly if some adverse geopolitical news comes out, such as potential Iran escalation or the latest tariff headlines, but we believe that these will not be long lasting, and should be seen as buying opportunities."
JPM sees leadership – ie which stocks drive overall market performance – broadening away from the Mag-7 tech giants, which have "stalled" despite strong earnings, in favour of small caps, 'value' stocks and international (ie non-US) stocks.
International markets (ie the FTSE, Nikkei, DAX etc) outperformed the US in 2025 by 12% and are again in the lead by 8% so far in 2026.
"We think this outperformance is justified, and believe that it will keep having legs," JPM adds, "given still extreme positioning, elevated concentration of Mag-7 and the large valuation differential."
"If Mag-7 does not retake the lead, it is unlikely US stocks will be able to, too."
12.49pm: Rolls results rolling closer
Rolls-Royce reports full-year results on Thursday, with its shares up over 100% over the past year and over 1,000% over the past five years.
The interesting question is what the company does about targets that the market has already left behind, according to RBC Capital Markets.
Analysts at the bank say the sell-side consensus already expects Rolls to hit its 2028 EBITA guidance of £3.6 billion to £3.9 billion as early as this year, with the free cash flow target of £4.2 billion to £4.5 billion expected to follow in 2027.
Consensus sits around 20% above the 2028 EBITA target and roughly 10% above on free cash flow.
The targets, only set in February 2025, are effectively redundant before Rolls has had a chance to celebrate them.
12.24pm: Trump threatens 'much more powerful and obnoxious' tariffs
Donald Trump has threatened to use more "obnoxious" tariffs as he attacked the Supreme Court for ruling against his previous tariffs.
In a post on his Truth Social network, the US President said: "The supreme court (will be using lower case letters for a while based on a complete lack of respect!*) of the United States accidentally and unwittingly gave me, as President of the United States, far more powers and strength than I had prior to their ridiculous, dumb, and very internationally divisive ruling."
He goes on to say that he can use licenses "to do absolutely 'terrible' things to foreign countries, especially those countries that have been RIPPING US OFF for many decades".
Trump also says the court "has also approved all other tariffs, of which there are many, and they can all be used in a much more powerful and obnoxious way, with legal certainty, than the tariffs as initially used".
12.09pm: FTSE positive, US futures negative
The FTSE 100 is now inching upwards and has regained the 10,700 plateau.
JD Sports, precious metals and copper miners, plus China-tilted names like Burberry and Standard Chartered are topping the leaderboard.
On mainland Europe, the mood also seems to be more positive in the most part, with Germany's DAX the only main index still in the red.
US stock futures are also negative, with the Nasdaq indicated down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.4% and those for the Dow Jones down 0.3%.
Is the 'Sell America' trade back?
"The market reaction so far is mixed," says market analyst Kathleen Brooks, adding that the lower US stock futures "suggests that, at the margin, these new tariffs, are fueling the sell-America trade, and we could see more European outperformance vs US stocks in the coming weeks. This comes after European stocks easily outpaced their US counterparts last week."
The earlier sell-off in the dollar was far from a rout, but "is worth watching closely, and risk sentiment could be impacted as more details about the tariffs and how they will be implemented come out this week", she says.
"As we move to the last trading week of the month, US indices are trailing their European counterparts, after a bruising month, that has been categorized by broad US stock sell offs spurred by fears about the latest AI tools.
"The Nasdaq is still in the red for the year so far, as the US tech index is a major global underperformer."
For the Nasdaq, it is a bit of a repeat of 2025, when the index had its worst start to the year in two decades, but rebounded hard. Also, look back to 2022, the index sold off sharply and fell 33% for the full year, substantially underperformed the S&P 500 and other European indices but then blasted back over the following two years.
Looking ahead, today's economic data is factory orders and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index.
11.06am: Oil and energy risks 'elevated'
BP shares are up 0.9% and Shell 0.2%, with Brent crude oil futures down 0.7% at $71.25 a barrel, having at the end of last week topped $72 for the first time since last July.
UBS analyst Joshua Stone says energy markets are carrying “elevated risk premiums” as investors brace for potential US strikes on Iran.
Citing reports that President Trump is considering an initial military move, Stone notes the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil and LNG supply.
However, he cautions that “geopolitically-induced spikes are often short-lived”, especially without lasting supply damage.
In the near term, the analyst and his colleagues like the look of producers with good upstream exposure (citing Equinor) but stress that “prices can fade as quickly as they arrive” and so continue to favour companies with stronger structural growth (highlighting TotalEnergies, Eni and Galp as preferred names to add “on any dips”).
10.12am: Movers
Some movers.
Empyrean Energy has jumped over 20% after telling investors it has finalised binding documents to settle historical cash call arrears tied to Indonesia’s Mako gas project, activating a previously announced farm-out structure.
Smiths News is down 5% after receiving a warning notice from the Pensions Regulator over the Tuffnells Parcels Express pension scheme, raising the possibility of a financial claim against the company.
Helix Exploration jumped 5% in early deals, moving back towards recent highs, after revealing that it has started producing helium gas at its Rudyard project in northern Montana, saying the move makes it the first helium gas producer in the state.
TomCo Energy dropped 35% impacted by expected new equity dilution, after it announced a renewed partnership to progress oil-sands opportunities in Utah’s Uinta Basin.
9.50am: More tariff analysis
New US tariffs are "only smoke and mirrors" for other options, say ING's Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley.
"Given that the latest tariffs can also be legally challenged, they might just be a measure to buy some time for another tariff option: Section 301 of the 1974 law.
"This Section 301 addresses unfair trade practices or violations of trade agreements but requires more thorough investigations."
The bilateral deals agreed with several countries, such as the UK and Japan, are "not directly affected by the Supreme Court ruling".
"However, some deals – such as those with Switzerland or India – made explicit reference to the emergency tariffs, as the new tariff rates were framed as reductions from those emergency levels. As the legal reference tariff rate has now disappeared, these deals might have to be redrafted," the pair said.
In the case of the US-EU trade deal, "things are even more complicated", they add.
"The European Parliament suspended approval of the EU’s commitments under the agreement when the Greenland conflict escalated. It now remains unclear whether the Parliament will push for a full renegotiation of the deal.
"That said, the US administration would likely rely on sectoral tariffs and Section 301 measures to pressure the EU to return to the negotiating table."
US macro outlook stays roughly unchanged, they believe, with rising import prices and the latest core goods CPI reading of 1.1% indicating that corporate America is bearing the bulk of the burden from tariff costs.
9.14am: FTSE 100 flattens off
The FTSE 100 is almost back to flat now, down less than one point.
It's mixed across on the Continent, with the DAX down 0.4% in Frankfurt, while the CAC 40 is almost flat in Paris, while the benchmarks in Milan and Madrid are both up 0.7%.
The Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.1%, with Johnson Matthey and Novo Nordisk the biggest fallers.
Novo, which makes Wegovy and Ozempic, is down 15% after trial results for a new weight-loss treatment, CagriSema, showed it led to 23% weight loss after 84 weeks, below initial expectations of 25% weight loss.
Markets are eyeing a global trade landscape that is an "unholy mess, prompting far more questions than answers", according to market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor.
But he says the confusion "may yet have revived the 'sell America' trade," with Wall Street futures indicating lower.
"The initial market reaction to the ruling was positive, lifting the likes of Amazon and Home Depot who in theory could benefit from tariff refunds. However, as the weekend events unfolded, sentiment has turned and the current indication is that the main indices will reverse any such gains when trading resumes later."
There will be more for investors for ponder on the AI trade this week as Nvidia reports earnings, while today is the deadline for Paramount to make a best and final offer for Warner Bros Discovery, potentially derailing Netflix’s $83 billion takeover deal.
8.41am: Fresnillo leads precious metals miners on the rise
Gold and silver miners are among the top risers, as precious metals prices have picked up on the back of the new tariff uncertainty.
Fresnillo shares are up 3.3% and Endeavour Mining 3.1% on the FTSE 100, while among mid-caps, Hochschild Mining has risen 3% and Pan African Resources 2.2%.
The price of gold rose to a three-month high above $5,170 an ounce in early morning trading, but has eased back to $5,125.
Silver was up 1.7% at $86/oz, having neared $88 in the early hours, at least a two-week high.
Copper prices spiked overnight, but were down in early European trading, though Antofagasta is up 1.4%, with Glencore and Anglo American shares also moving higher.
8.15am: FTSE 100 starts week lower, JMAT tumbles
The FTSE 100 has opened 16 points lower at just below 10,671.
Leading the fallers are a disparate mix of companies, including Whitbread, ICG, Mondi, LSEG, DCC, Polar Capital Tech Trust and BAE Systems.
Top of the risers is JD Sports, after announcing a new £200 million share buyback.
On the FTSE 250, Johnson Matthey is leading the fallers, down 12.7% after cutting the price and payout for the big catalysts disposal it announced last year.
7.51am: Johnson Matthey cuts price of catalyst sale
In company news, Johnson Matthey has cut the price it is selling its Catalyst Technologies (CT) division to Honeywell and agreed to extend the deadline, saying it plans to return around £1 billion to shareholders compared to £1.4 billion before.
The chemicals group said it has lowered the price to reflect the deferral of key licensing projects and reduced profitability from supplying catalysts because of what it described as a challenging market environment.
As a result, the agreed enterprise value of the business has been set at £1.325 billion on a cash and debt-free basis, down from £1.8 billion when the sale was agreed last May.
7.27am: Tariff analysis
The new tariff situation "leaves a substantial amount of uncertainty, even if markets initially welcomed the perceived clarity of 'only' a 10% tariff on Friday", says Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deustsche Bank.
Trump's new 15% tariff under Section 122 can only remain in place for 150 days, he notes, meaning Congressional approval would be required by late July to extend it.
"That raises a key political question: will a small number of Republicans in either chamber be reluctant to support what could be framed as an extension of a consumer tax hike just three and a half months before the mid term elections?
"At that point, the administration faces a binary choice: try to secure an extension or allow the tariff to lapse. The latter appears the more likely outcome."
The White House could pivot to other legal authorities to re-establish a more durable tariff regime, which Reid says the groundwork for such moves has almost certainly been laid and are also vulnerable to legal challenges.
Over the weekend, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested yesterday that trade deals already agreed with other countries will remain in place.
"It will be interesting to see if the assurances from the likes of Greer ease concerns of those who have already agreed deals," says Reid.
An emergency European Parliament trade committee meeting is taking place today, with chair Bernd Lange saying: "Nobody can make sense of it anymore – only unanswered questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US trading partners.".
7.20am: FTSE 100 set to start week higher with tariffs in focus
The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week on the back foot as traders chew over the US government's fast-evolving tariff situation and a fall in UK job vacancies.
London's blue-chip index has been called 13 points lower, after it added over 240 points last week to finish at 10,686.89.
Wall Street stocks also had a positive week overall, ending on the front foot after the US Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs were unconstitutional.
The White House immediately responded with plans for a 10% global tariff under new rules, increasing this to 15% on Saturday, the maximum tariff that can be imposed using the 'Section 122' authority, which only lasts until mid-July.
China’s Commerce Ministry urged the US to cancel tariffs as they are "are not in the interests of any party" and "fighting is harmful".
Back in the UK, the number of job vacancy adverts have been revealed to have fallen 3% last month to the lowest level since 2021, according to the job site Adzuna, the first time below 700,000 in five years.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan's Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite indices both down over 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shoots 2.2% higher and India's Sensex is up 0.4%.