ASX 200 futures were up 23.6 points (+0.26%) at 9:45 am AEDT, pointing to a firmer open after a stronger lead from offshore markets and a bounce in several key commodity prices.
Overnight, risk appetite improved across the major US indices, with investors leaning back into growth and big tech — even as headlines on tariffs and the Middle East kept event-risk elevated. Locally, reporting season stays busy, particularly for juniors, and the resources complex could be back in focus after gold jumped back above US$5,100/oz.
Wall Street
US markets finished higher and close to the session’s better levels, with tech-heavy names again doing plenty of the heavy lifting. The Nasdaq led the way, up 0.90%, while the S&P 500 also advanced about 0.70% as investors appeared willing to look through a choppy late-week news cycle.
There were a few cross-currents under the surface:
- Tariffs: The US Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose reciprocal tariffs was unlawful, leaving open questions around potential refunds. Over the weekend, Trump responded by announcing a new 15% global tariff under the 1974 Trade Act, effective immediately and set to run for up to 150 days while further industry-specific tariff investigations are considered.
- Geopolitics also stayed on the radar. Tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin a sense of caution, particularly for energy markets and risk positioning more broadly.
- Macro data offered a softer note, with US growth prints coming in below expectations — though market reaction suggested investors were more focused on positioning and sector rotation than the headline number.
Global markets
European equities were generally higher, while the Asia session into the week’s end was weaker in parts, reflecting a more cautious tone ahead of key catalysts and ongoing geopolitical noise.
One theme that’s been building through February is the rotation away from a narrow set of mega-cap winners, with leadership broadening at times even as single-stock volatility remains punchy — a market that can look calm at index level while individual names swing hard.
ASX and small caps
Friday looked more like a mild pullback on the ASX rather than a full risk-off move, with the ASX 200 down 0.05%. The split was telling: defensives and yield-style pockets held up, while tech and consumer-facing names were softer. The Small Ordinaries fell 0.43%, suggesting risk appetite cooled a touch at the junior end of the market.
Sector-wise, energy, financials and real estate were among the firmer areas, while information technology was notably weaker on the day — a reminder that tech remains one of the market’s most sensitive battlegrounds amid ongoing debate around AI winners, AI “priced-in” valuations, and where disruption risk actually sits.
Today’s agenda is earnings-heavy, with a long list of reporters due — including Austal, Lendlease Group, Star Entertainment Group and Reece, plus several smaller and mid-cap gold names that may draw extra attention after bullion’s overnight surge.
Commodities and currencies
After a volatile few weeks, commodities have again asserted themselves as a key driver:
- Gold climbed 2.23% to US$5,109/oz, putting the spotlight back on local gold producers after a mixed run in recent sessions.
- Copper rose 1.75%, a positive sign for the broader base-metals complex.
- Oil was steadier at around US$66.48/bbl (WTI), but the backdrop remains sensitive to geopolitical developments.
In currencies, the Aussie dollar hovered around US$0.708, little changed, while crypto was softer with Bitcoin lower overnight.
What’s on the agenda today
With no major economic data due locally, sentiment is likely to hinge on offshore developments and the steady stream of earnings updates.
- Offshore, tariff policy remains a swing factor for risk sentiment — particularly for anything with global supply-chain exposure.
- US–Iran tensions continue to simmer and can quickly spill into energy pricing and broader risk appetite.
- On the company front, another busy earnings day could generate plenty of stock-specific volatility, even if the index itself stays relatively well behaved.
Locally, keep an eye on the reporting slate for any guidance resets, margin commentary and demand signals — especially for cyclicals — as investors try to work out whether the market is heading into a “soft landing” phase or simply digesting a noisy patch of macro and policy risk.