Prediction markets now price a 28% chance Bitcoin falls to $60,000 before the month ends, with recovery above $80,000 given just a 5% probability.
The numbers are stark. Polymarket betting activity suggests the recovery case has essentially collapsed.
What makes the picture particularly telling are the red arrows on the page: the $80,000 probability has fallen 44% and $75,000 by 38%, suggesting bettors have been aggressively revising down their expectations as Bitcoin has slid.
Investors have rotated into traditional havens, lifting the US dollar and oil prices. That shift has tightened financial conditions and pressured speculative assets, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to further downside.
Reports that Washington has amassed significant air power in the Middle East, with military assets expected to be in place by mid-March, have heightened fears of possible strikes on Iran.
Bitcoin is now on track for a fifth straight weekly loss, its longest run of declines in years, taking it below $67,000.
The token remains nearly 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, with momentum subdued as traders await clearer signals on geopolitics and the broader macro backdrop.