The ASX looks set to build on Wednesday’s advance, with futures pointing 26 points higher (+0.29%) at 8:30 am AEDT after a constructive lead from Wall Street and a sharp rebound in oil and metals overnight.
The S&P/ASX 200 finished up 0.54% yesterday at 9,007, its third consecutive gain, while the Small Ordinaries added 1.39% as investors continued to rotate back into tech and growth names during reporting season.
Overnight, US markets pushed higher again, though well off their best levels of the session. The S&P 500 rose 0.56%, the Nasdaq gained 0.78% and the Dow added 0.26%, with strength concentrated in energy, tech and consumer discretionary stocks.
Wall Street: Growth bounce, oil spike
A mix of firmer US economic data and easing anxiety around artificial intelligence disruption helped underpin risk appetite.
Industrial production and housing data reinforced the view that the US economy remains resilient, while minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed policymakers still wary of inflation persistence — though most expect easing to resume over time if price pressures continue to moderate.
Energy was the standout sector. Oil jumped more than 4% after comments from US Vice President JD Vance suggested Iran had not accepted key US demands in stalled nuclear talks, fuelling concern about potential supply disruptions. WTI crude climbed to around US$65.40 a barrel, while Brent traded above US$70.
Big Tech names were firmer, with Nvidia rising after outlining expanded chip supply arrangements with Meta. Defensive pockets of the market, including utilities and real estate, lagged after recent outperformance.
Bond yields edged higher, with the US 10-year lifting to 4.08%, and the US dollar strengthened.
Commodities and currencies
After Wednesday’s softer tone in parts of the commodity complex, prices rebounded overnight:
- Gold rose 2.1% to around US$5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical tension and steady investment demand.
- Copper climbed roughly 2.4%, with broader base metals also firmer.
- WTI oil surged nearly 5% to US$65.38/barrel.
- Iron ore held near US$100/tonne in Singapore trade, though recent price volatility remains a headwind for bulk miners.
The Australian dollar slipped back towards US70.4 cents. Bitcoin slipped below US$66,200, while Ethereum also traded lower.
ASX: Earnings front and centre
Locally, attention will be squarely on reporting season, with dozens of companies due to release first-half FY26 results today.
Yesterday’s session was led by technology and financials. National Australia Bank hit a record high after a December-quarter cash earnings beat, while software names such as TechnologyOne and Hansen Technologies rallied on upbeat guidance and strong half-year numbers.
Materials were the only major sector to close lower, weighed down by softer iron ore prices and some profit-taking in the big miners.
This morning’s early results suggest another mixed but active session:
- Telstra delivered solid earnings growth, lifted its interim dividend and expanded its on-market buyback, supported by stronger mobile revenue and cost discipline.
- HUB24 posted double-digit revenue and earnings growth, with funds under administration climbing to $152 billion and a modest upgrade to its FY27 FUA target.
- Transurban reported steady traffic growth across most regions, with North America a highlight, and reaffirmed its full-year distribution guidance.
- Medibank saw revenue hold up but underlying profit slip slightly, reflecting continued claims pressure and ongoing cyber-related costs.
In quieter early small-cap news flow as the RIU Explorers conference winds up:
- Elixir Energy Ltd (ASX:EXR, OTC:ELXPF) reported encouraging wireline results from its Lorelle-3 pilot well in Queensland’s Taroom Trough, logging four Permian hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs and 148 metres of total net pay across the Tinowon ‘Dunk’ Sandstone, Lorelle Sandstone, Kianga Group and Overston Sandstone. EXR said the Dunk Sandstone — where it has identified a gas-condensate resource — is confirmed as the target for a horizontal section, with operations to start after a plug-back.
- Percheron Therapeutics Ltd (ASX:PER, OTC:PERCF) said an abstract has been accepted for presentation at the American Association of Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting in San Diego in April, focusing on results from its completed Phase I study of HMBD-002 in patients with advanced cancer. PER said it plans to share full results at the conference, consistent with AACR embargo rules, and is aiming to start further clinical trials later in calendar 2026.
With labour force data due at 11:30am AEDT, macro and micro catalysts are colliding. The unemployment rate will be closely watched for any sign that the labour market is softening following Wednesday’s wage price index, which showed annual wage growth of 3.4% — a step down from earlier peaks but still above pre-pandemic norms.
Looking ahead
The combination of a firmer global lead, a sharp move in oil and a heavy slate of earnings suggests another stock-specific session on the ASX.
While geopolitical risks remain elevated — particularly around Iran — the broader tone in global equities has improved in recent days as AI-related disruption fears recede and economic data continues to point to a resilient US backdrop.
For local investors, the question now is whether commodity strength can offset ongoing volatility in iron ore and whether the reporting season momentum in tech and financials can carry through into the back half of the week.