Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is urging investors to tune out the headline haze, arguing that the market’s recent geopolitical jitters and violent sector rotations have delivered “more noise than (macro) news” - and that the bank’s optimistic 2026 baseline remains “largely unchanged.”
In Hatzius’ framework, the macro mix still looks supportive: global growth should beat consensus as tariff effects fade, fiscal support filters through and financial conditions ease, while inflation drifts closer to target as wage and rent pressures moderate. That combination, he argues, ought to underpin risk assets, though he also warns that high starting valuations cap expected returns and that uncertainty over AI’s winners and losers could keep equity leadership volatile even without a major shock.
On the US, the note acknowledges softer consumer signals, including higher delinquencies, weak December core retail sales and a dip in Conference Board confidence, but says the picture doesn’t yet point to a meaningful slowdown.
Goldman puts the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at a “moderate 20%”. It cautions the January payrolls print may be distorted by industry concentration and methodology changes, but says the household survey is more convincing, with unemployment down to 4.28% and the employment-to-population ratio rising.
Beyond the US, Hatzius notes a drop in tech employment and the disruption in software stocks, but argues the sector is too small to drive a broad jobs shock and, the note says, an AI-driven “job apocalypse” is not expected.
The inflation picture, meanwhile, remains l clouded by the impact of the government shutdown, and Goldman still sees the Fed on hold for much of 2026, though it does eeps forecasts for 25bp cuts in June and September.