BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP) used its first-half result to underline how quickly copper is reshaping the group, with RBC Capital Markets describing the numbers as a “clean, copper-led result with solid financial 1H performance”.
The Canadian bank said earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from the world's largest miner were “modestly ahead”, alongside free cash flow, while “the 60% payout surprised positively”.
Revenue was $27.9 billion and underlying EBITDA was $15.5 billion, RBC said, while underlying net profit after tax of $6.2 billion was below its forecast and the miss was “likely below-the-line (tax, minorities, finance)”.
Dividend per share was 73c, above RBC’s 69c estimate and the 63c consensus figure, with the payout ratio at 60% versus RBC’s 50% estimate.
Copper “now drives the story”, RBC said, after it contributed 51% of group EBITDA at a 66% margin, compared with iron ore’s 62% margin, and copper EBITDA of $8.0 billion exceeded iron ore EBITDA of $7.5 billion.
BHP maintained its 2026 guidance, but RBC said 2027 copper guidance for Escondida had been lifted by 100,000 tonnes to 1,000,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes, “reducing the dip in production”.
Management also “outlined Copper growth to [around] 2.5Mt (Cu Equivalent) by mid 2030’s anchored by Escondida, Copper SA and Vicuna”, framing it as an “aspirational pathway rather than formal guidance”.
RBC said BHP did not use the half-year to announce “new large-scale project approvals”, but pointed to “two key portfolio developments”, the Vicuña preliminary economic assessment and a “Silver stream at Antamina of $4.3b, capital structure optimisation”.
Under the Antamina deal, RBC said Wheaton Precious Metals will pay BHP an upfront $4.3 billion, with the transaction expected to close on April 1 2026.
RBC said the updated Vicuña study described a staged, long-life copper development with about 400,000 tonnes a year of average copper production in the first 25 years and an initial capital cost of about $7.1 billion.
In London, the shares were up just under 1% at 2,697.71p.