Antofagasta PLC shares led the FTSE 100 fallers on Tuesday morning after the copper mining giant reported solid annual results but copper prices fell.
Revenues rose 30% to US$8.62 billion, in line with forecasts, while underlying profits (EBITDA) jumped 52% US$5.2 billion, also in line with consensus. The average realised copper price rose 18% to $4.93/lb in the year.
The dividend was more than doubled to 64.6 US cents, though the final dividend of 48 cents was lower than the consensus estimate of 56.5 cents.
There was no change to guidance for 2026, with capex guidance reiterated for $3.4 billion, with both the $4.4 billion Centinela second concentrator project and $2 billion Los Pelambres growth enabling projects continuing to progress in line with expectations and set to drive 30% production growth.
It expects strong electrification-led copper demand and constrained global supply support a structurally tight market, as global disruption rates remain elevated, with several major copper mines experiencing significant operational events last year.
UBS analysts noted that 2025 is expected to be the peak capex year before declining in 2027 as projects are delivered.
"In our view, key projects remaining on track and hitting capex guidance during peak year in 2025 (i.e. no capex overrun) was the key bottom-up risk for ANTO," they said.
"ANTO's major projects are becoming increasingly derisked. In our view, this was one of the key drivers of ANTO's outperformance vs peers in 2025."
Dan Lane, analyst at Robinhood UK, said the hike in pre-tax profits underscores "the positive drivers of higher copper prices and disciplined cost control".
"With strong cash flow, a bumper dividend and medium-term projects on track, the story now turns squarely to the next stage in the copper cycle, which will likely be written in Beijing and global industrial demand."
He said the structural copper story was "intact" but noted that prices "could swing on Chinese data and governmental policy. These results reinforce Antofagasta’s operational credibility but copper bugs now need to watch China’s economic pulse and broader industrial activity.