Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) reported fourth quarter 2025 results that fell short of analyst expectations as crypto market activity softened during the period.
The company posted revenue of $1.78 billion for the quarter, below the $1.85 billion consensus estimate, while earnings per share came in at $0.66 versus the $1.05 forecast. Total revenue declined 5% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting weaker trading conditions late in the year.
Transaction revenue fell 6% sequentially to $983 million, which Coinbase said coincided with an approximately 11% drop in the overall crypto market capitalization during the period. Subscription and services revenue declined 3% quarter-over-quarter to $727 million.
Despite the softer fourth quarter, Coinbase reported full-year 2025 revenue of $7.2 billion, representing 9% year-over-year growth.
Following the release, Jefferies cut its price target on the stock to $151 from $268 and maintained a ‘Hold’ rating, citing a weaker outlook that it said was “reflective of current market backdrop.”
The firm noted that the quarter featured a modest top-line miss but pointed to a more meaningful disappointment in forward guidance. “The midpoint for COIN's Q1 outlook for SS&O revs of $590 million came in well below consensus $760 million,” they noted, while guided expense lines were about $36 million above consensus at the midpoint.
On transactions, Jefferies said revenue came in $19 million below consensus and was driven by retail weakness. “Retail missed by -$40 million as the +8% beat on retail vols was more than offset by lower margins,” the firm wrote, noting the retail take rate declined 12 basis points quarter over quarter to 131 basis points. Institutional revenue, however, exceeded expectations, supported in part by another record quarter at Deribit.
Jefferies highlighted higher spending as another pressure point, stating that total operating expenses were $47 million above consensus, driven primarily by higher sales and marketing expenses. Sales and marketing costs of $315 million represented the largest variance versus expectations.
Looking ahead, Coinbase said it generated approximately $420 million in transaction revenue in the first quarter of 2026 through February 10, while cautioning investors against extrapolating early-quarter results. Jefferies wrote that this figure implies average daily revenue of about $10.2 million, about 10% less than the consensus estimate of $11.4 million, reinforcing its more cautious near-term view.
Despite the weaker-than-expected Q4 report, shares of Coinbase added more than 5% at Friday’s open, likely reflecting a “relief rally” amid low expectations going into the print.