DoorDash Inc (NYSE:DASH) will hand down its fourth quarter earnings report on February 18, with Bank of America expecting an in-line print.
The bank’s analysts expect gross order value (GOV) of $29.2 billion, revenue of $3.94 billion, and EBITDA of $792 million, compared with Street estimates of $29.2 billion, $3.99 billion and $774 million, respectively.
“We think healthy online shift and fast-growing retail can more than offset soft restaurant sector trends and see GOV upside potential,” the analysts wrote in a note.
Data from Bank of America’s debit and credit card tracking showed US online restaurant spending was up 8% year-over-year in Q4, stable versus Q3, while Uber’s recent results suggest retail is accelerating delivery growth.
Looking ahead, BofA noted that first quarter EBITDA is expected to come in below the Street consensus, citing higher anticipated investments early in 2026 and potential weather impacts. The firm lowered its Q1 EBITDA estimate to $759 million from $783 million, versus the Street at $804 million.
“Our read from Uber results is delivery market remains healthy, but there could be some deceleration in year-over-year as retail is less of a positive driver in Q1,” the report said.
Despite a softer Q1 outlook, BofA expects DoorDash’s 2026 full-year EBITDA of $3.6 billion to remain unchanged, reflecting stable core margins of roughly 3.25% on GOV and a front-loaded year for expenses. The firm also noted a $200 million contribution from Deliveroo is included in the full-year outlook.
BofA sees the recent sector selloff as overdone. “We think Q1 margin concerns have been building since Q3 results, and Q1 outlook could be a clearing event if top line is strong & full year margin outlook is relatively unchanged,” they wrote.
They also highlighted limited AI risk for DoorDash given its strong courier, restaurant, and subscription network.
The firm maintained a ‘Buy’ rating while lowering its price target to $260 from $305, citing multiple compression. At current levels, DoorDash trades at 15x 2027 US restaurant EBITDA, with the non-US restaurant delivery business valued conservatively at 0.7x GOV.
DoorDash shares traded hands at $163 on Thursday afternoon, down about 28% so far this year.