UBS analysts have slightly increased their price target for Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) to $245 from $235, citing a generally positive earnings backdrop and supply chain trends, though they described the stock’s near-term upside as limited.
The firm maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the chipmaker.
“Given middling stock performance, supply chain signals that remain bullish, and a management team that seems frustrated with the prevailing doubts around growth and margin sustainability, the earnings set-up here seems positive—especially as we head toward GTC next month,” UBS wrote.
The analysts expect Nvidia’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, ending January, to come in at roughly $67.5 billion, about $2.5 billion ahead of the company’s guidance.
They noted that potential additional revenue from China remains uncertain, as the country is increasingly using homegrown GPUs, but added that “using AMD as a guide, we could potentially see another few billion dollars of revenue into China that could sit on top for fiscal Q4 results.”
UBS expects Nvidia may exclude China from its guidance, forecasting approximately $76 billion for fiscal first-quarter revenue, above investor expectations of $74 billion to $75 billion.
The firm also reiterated confidence in Nvidia’s gross margin outlook. “We see nothing in the near-term to move us off NVDA’s 75% gross margin guidance range, though investors have begun to question the sustainability of these levels given perceived threats from Google/AVGO TPU—a debate NVDA will surely address on this call and at GTC,” they wrote.
On longer-term production and supply, UBS raised its estimates for calendar-year 2026, modeling Nvidia’s GPU output at roughly 9.5 million units, up from 9.3 million previously, while noting there is “more slack in channel inventory.”
The firm also highlighted that hyperscale capital expenditures have grown sharply, with approximately $145 billion, or roughly 25%, added to 2026 plans during the latest earnings cycle.
The UBS team projected Nvidia’s earnings per share for calendar years 2026–2028 at $9.11, $12.08, and $12.92, respectively, with total revenue estimated at $381 billion for 2026 and $509 billion for 2027.
Despite these upgrades, the analysts cautioned that stock trading may remain constrained by valuation concerns, saying they “doubt the stock will trade for any more than 20x next 12 months EPS.”
Shares of Nvidia traded hands at about $190 on Thursday afternoon, up 44% in the last year.