RaaS continues to see Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1, OTC:GBBLF, FRA:WS90) as a "unique investment opportunity" into the "clean and green" energy sector and is framing 2026 as a year where the company needs to deliver clear technical milestones to reduce risk and move closer to commercial outcomes. The broker’s focus remains on two tracks: Provaris’ compressed hydrogen storage pathway and a separate LCO2 tank opportunity, where FEED and fabrication work are the near-term markers of progress.
"As we see it, Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX.PV1) continues to represent a unique investment offering into the ‘clean and green’ energy sector, and the complementary carbon capture and storage business, through its proprietary storage tank designs. On success, the innovative designs as proposed should be viewed as a disruptor technology that can instigate and support a materially positive change to energy supply-chains and the economics of CO2 transport — simply on the basis of shipping 'more for less' cost. We view 2026 as the year to complete deliverables in both the hydrogen and LCO2 streams and note the recent ASX release, that it has '…successfully completed the Phase 1 delivery of LCO2 Tank FEED (…) on time and within budget'.
"We indicated in our most recent update that '…the LCO2 business stream, had made significant above- expectation progress'. The completion of the Phase 1 FEED deliverable supports our view of a business segment gaining in momentum, particularly with the confirmation of an agreement with Himile for the evaluation of the fabrication potential and cost for scale production of the LCO2 tanks. Yinson has approved the continuation through Phase 2 FEED to deliver '…Class Approval, a fully costed fabrication facility and production cost estimate' by 30 June…so the clock is ticking. We highlight that Yinson is financing FEED under the terms of the Joint Development Agreement (JDA). The market should be buoyed by the advancements on the LCO2 stream with both business options now heading to material de-risking outcomes around mid-2026. Anecdotally, we see continuing high levels of engagement on a conceptual and practical basis. The success case will ultimately need to be underpinned by economics and the potential of the Provaris tank design to change the operating paradigm in Europe and Asia.
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NAV range: $0.09–$0.17/share
RaaS has moved its NAV range to $0.09–$0.17/share (from $0.10–$0.17/share) after allowing for dilution from issued capital. The broker’s mid-point/base case stays at $0.14/share, suggesting its core view hasn’t changed.
RaaS also points out the range is very sensitive to execution. In simple terms, the valuation can shift quickly if Provaris hits key 2026 milestones and lowers technical and delivery risk.
Investment focus: What RaaS says to watch in 2026
Hydrogen: Finish fabrication, then test and move through class approvals
For hydrogen, RaaS keeps the spotlight on finishing the prototype and then moving into testing and class approval steps. The broker sees this sequence as the main hurdle before Provaris can push toward more detailed project planning and contracting.
RaaS notes fabrication is progressing at the Fiskå Innovation Centre and expects testing and approval work could take up to 8–9 weeks once fabrication is complete.
LCO2: FEED progress and clearer detail on fabrication and costs
RaaS is more positive on the LCO2 track, highlighting Phase 1 FEED completed on time and within budget. The broker also points to the MOU with Himile and Yinson to assess whether LCO2 tanks can be built at Himile’s Rushan facility, and what the likely costs look like.
The next key step is Stage 2 FEED, targeted for completion by June 30, and notes Yinson is funding the FEED work under the joint development agreement.
Broker view: The re-rate depends on delivery
RaaS’ message is that Provaris’ valuation upside is mainly tied to milestone delivery. The broker sees class approvals, proven testing outcomes and clear fabrication pathways as the main factors that can reduce risk and support a stronger market rating over time.