- FTSE 100 edges up 16 points to 10,386
- NatWest buys wealth manager Evelyn
- Plus500 impresses with results
5.05pm: Footsie gains
The FTSE 100 added 16 points to finish the day at 10,386, within striking distance of its record closing level achieved last week.
Across the Atlantic, the Dow was little changed at 50,122 points while the Nasdaq added 1.1% and the S&P 500 added 0.6%.
“While the Dow has failed to hold 50,000 so far today, a recovery in tech stocks suggests that the rotational trade in this bull market may be moving back in the other direction,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.
“With some time before Nvidia’s earnings round of tech reporting season, the focus this week shifts back to the macro picture, and a potentially Goldilocks combination of a weak jobs report and inflation data reinforcing hopes of a dovish Fed at the next decision.”
4.11pm: FTSE fights back
London's blue-chip index has battled back into positive territory as the end of the day's session comes into view.
Miners and defence & aerospace names are the main driving force, as they were in the early morning.
Copper miner Antofagasta is top of the leaderboard, up 6% as copper climbs 1%.
With gold and silver also rising, Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining are next on the table, up 5.5% and 5.3% respectively.
More diversified Glencore, Rio Tinto and Anglo American are all up between 4.5% and 2.8%.
Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems and Babcock are also hovering around the top 10, along with telecoms companies Vodafone and Airtel Africa, and airline owner IAG.
Still leading the fallers is NatWest, followed by BAT, Autotrader and BT, with other banks and utilities and retailers behind.
UK politics, specifically the immediate fate of Keir Starmer, continues to fascinate markets today.
The PM is due to speak to the parliamentary Labour Party at 6pm, which, says market analyst Neil Wilson at Saxo, "could be a pivotal moment if he is to survive this week", following the resignation of his chief of staff over the weekend and director of communications today.
"The market is worried about a) political uncertainty with a vacuum at the top against a backdrop of acure economic and geopolitical challenges, and b) that any replacement of the Starmer-Reeves regime would be from the left, implying more spending and potentially unwinding all the fiscal repairs carried out at the last Budget.
"Incidentally, it’s this fear of an attack by bond vigilantes that just might save the PM, though it’s looking increasingly less likely he will survive as Labour leader by the May elections."
In the Budget last November, Reeves’s move to raise taxes and fiscal headroom eased concerns about debt sustainability and immediate fiscal risks, with the current Chancellor seen as the most ‘market-friendly’ possible candidate for that role within the government.
Following a rough summer ahead of the Budget and a global bond selloff, Wilson notes that 10yr gilt yields had declined from around 4.8% at the highs last September to around 4.4% last month.
"No surprise then that this turmoil in Downing St has seen 10yr gilt yields inch up about 8bps today to 4.59%, touching 4.6% at the highs."
Sterling, which had been trading pretty strongly since the Budget, "now looks susceptible should further pressure on the PM follow."
3.46pm: Crypto miners switch off - due to AI power demand?
Among the many AI-related notes today, one of them, from Morgan Stanley, maybe explains why Bitcoin’s latest wobble looks different from the flash-crash seen last autumn, as part of the reason is that crypto miners appear to be stepping back, with data suggesting that machines are being switched off.
Morgan Stanley, via the FT, suggests that repurposing crypto mining facilities into data centres could be far more lucrative, given a "systematic shortage of AI compute-related supply".
Converting every large US bitcoin miner would still leave the market short of electricity, however.
The bank says former miners could end up valued like infrastructure assets rather than crypto plays, with long-term contracted cash flows attracting a different investor base, ie REITs.
One geopolitical wrinkle remains for a self-stated crypto-friendly White House: if US miners pivot to AI, more bitcoin activity shifts elsewhere, most likely China and Russia.
3.22pm: Cabinet support for Starmer also supports gilts
Gilt yields - ie UK government borrowing costs - are back down a bit after several members of Keir Starmer's cabinet have weighed in with support for the under-fire PM.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves, energy secretary Ed Miliband, defence sec John Healey and health sec Wes Streeting (seen as a potential future challenger) have all expressed support for Starmer.
Rebuilding Britain takes time. But thanks to the decisions we've made NHS waiting lists are falling. Inflation is falling. Interest rates are falling. The conditions for the economy to grow are there.
With Keir as our Prime Minister we are turning the country around.
— Rachel Reeves (@RachelReevesMP) February 9, 2026
The British public gave Keir a huge mandate only 18 months ago.
They wanted a Labour government. They want us to deliver the change we promised. They expect us to get on with the job.
The PM has my fullest support in leading this government and this country.
— John Healey (@JohnHealey_MP) February 9, 2026
Keir has earned the right to deliver the change he has promised and do what he cares about - which is to serve the country.
This is not the time for the government to turn inwards on itself. We must focus on delivering the change we promised the country.
— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) February 9, 2026
Streeting told Sky News he has confidence in the PM even though it "has not been the best week for the government", urging Labour MPs to give Starmer a chance.
On the downside, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has called for Starmer to resign as PM and Labour leader, saying the "leadership in Downing Street has to change".
He says "the distraction needs to end. And the leadership in Downing Street has to change" ahead of the local elections in May.
2.46pm: US stocks mixed
Wall Street stocks started in the red by many have quickly moved into the green.
The Dow Jones remains down 0.3%, retreating from Friday's all-time high.
Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly on the front foot now, but the former is up just a couple of points or less than 0.05%, while the latter tech-heavy exchange has gained a little under 0.2% so far.
Among the biggest names, Nvidia and Microsoft are both up 0.9%, Apple is down 1%, Amazon is down 2.9% to extend the slump from last week to around 15%.
Apple, Amazon, IBM, Salesforce, Merck and Amgen are dragging the Dow down.
2.07pm: Affects of AI on different sectors
Experian was one of the companies swept up in the market’s broader anxiety about AI disruption, but UBS argues the sell-off has gone further than the fundamentals justify.
The bank says fears around artificial intelligence undermining data and software businesses need to be taken seriously, but its conclusion is that most of the group’s earnings remain well protected, even if some software and subscription revenues face longer-term challenges.
Angst about AI has also led to stocks in the online classifieds sector, such as Rightmove and Auto Trader, shedding a combined market value of around 40% over the past six months, UBS also notes.
The AI debate is likely to rage on until at least the second half of the year, the Swiss bank reckons, based on continued investor uncertainty.
Investor concern centres on whether AI could undermine the classifieds model, force higher investment spending or erode margins if platforms end up paying large language models for traffic.
The UBS on the former is that "the juice is unlikely to be worth the squeeze", but margins are a worry.
And among the barrage of AI-related notes today, UBS expects it to become a meaningful tailwind for the aviation sector, however.
Airlines are already finding ways to use the technology across pricing, operations and maintenance, even as regulators and cyber risks loom large, and the Swiss bank's analysts see AI being deployed to improve the customer journey through targeted marketing, fare discovery and revenue management, while “agentic” tools could reshape distribution and discovery.
1.29pm: Westminster watch
UK government bond yields have been steadily rising this morning, following the weekend resignation of the prime minister’s chief of staff.
Peel Hunt’s chief economist Kallum Pickering says policy uncertainty has risen as Keir Starmer’s grip on power and the direction of economic policy are under the microscope.
"As the situation remains in flux, speculation about what could happen next is rife. As it stands, Starmer is odds-on among bookmakers to be out by the end of the year," he says.
Bookmaker odds on who could be the next PM are changing daily, with former deputy leader Angela Rayner supported by grassroots members, health secretary Wes Streeting an economic centrist but harmed by being a friend of Mandelson.
The immediate issue for markets is not personalities but trajectory, says Pickering, who worries that a leadership challenge could shift Labour towards higher spending, more borrowing and a larger state.
From a market perspective, the problem is what Pickering and some others in the City call the "moron premium" – the extra yield investors demand to hold UK government debt when policy credibility looks shaky.
UK borrowing costs are already the highest in the G7, and any hint of looser fiscal discipline could push gilt yields higher and weaken sterling.
A centrist outcome such as Streeting or home secretary Shabana Mahmood would likely be absorbed relatively calmly by markets, he says.
In the event of a leadership contest, Pickering says to expect a familiar mix: softer pound, rising yields and wobblier equities as investors price political tail risks back into UK markets.
12.19pm: Wall Street not looking as confident
US futures have dropped into the red this morning, reversing some of their strong relief rally gains from the end of last week.
Nasdaq futures are down 0.5%, with those for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down 0.3% and 0.2%, retreating from the highs seen on Friday.
Back on this side of the Atlantic, it's just the FTSE in the red as we move into the afternoon half of the session, with banks weighing.
11.45am: Bitcoin bear case is weaker than ever, says pro-bitcoin analyst
Bitcoin has recovered from the lows seen last week but remains below $70K this morning.
Some supporters are not backing down, including Bernstein, with the US brokerage reiterating its bullish long-term outlook.
"What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history," says analyst Gautam Chhugani, reiterating his $150K price target for end-2026.
He says the recent price weakness is "a self-imposed crisis of confidence", with no repeats of the typical crypto slumps of the past, ie no major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns.
The current cycle is very different in the background from previous bear markets, he adds, with strong institutional support, including spot bitcoin ETF adoption, growing instances of corporate bitcoin treasury adoption and continued involvement from asset managers.
"Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel," Chhugani says, adding that media have decided "bitcoin and crypto are not interesting anymore".
With some analysts noting that bitcoin has underperformed gold during the volatility of recent weeks, he counters that bitcoin is not yet a mature safe haven, but that its new ETF infrastructure and corporate capital-raising channels remain positioned to benefit from improved liquidity when conditions ease.
11.31am: Greggs hit by weightloss drug worries
Greggs PLC is the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 this morning, down almost 5% after Jefferies warned that the baker is trying to push its sausage rolls into a growing headwind, downgrading from 'buy' to 'hold'.
Analyst Andrew Wade argue that the biggest threat to sales volumes of its meat pastries is increasingly pharmaceutical, with the rapid spread of appetite-suppressing injections such as Mounjaro and Ozempic, which are now estimated to be used by about 7% of UK adults.
This growing use is changing how Britain eats, with categories most affected being the exact sort of savoury, salty and high-calorie snacks the Newcastle-headquartered chain specialises in.
For a business built on repeat visits from hungry customers, that is a slimming prospect Wade thinks the market has not fully digested.
10.41am: FTSE falls into the red, European stocks mixed
European stocks are mixed midway throughh the morning session, with the FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 having dropped into the red.
Germany's DAX is still up slightly, 0.1%, while Spain's IBEX and Italy's MIB are up 0.6% and 1.1%.
Dragging the Footsie down, NatWest has been joined among the bigger fallers by Lloyds, Anglo American, AB Foods, M&S, Compass, BAT. Consumer goods groups Reckitt and Unilever are also in the red.
10.06am: Markets should see other sectors outside of AI gain in 2026
A cross-sector note from Shore Capital this morning has taken a look at how the 'Magnificent 7' tech giants impacted markets in last year.
Analyst Rob Sanders says global markets hovered around record highs in January, with the so-called Mag 7 continuing to dominate performance, with Nvidia remaining the standout, and along with Apple, both are worth more than the entire UK equity market combined at $4 trillion apiece, with Alphabet just behind at $3.9 trillion.
"While AI is likely to continue to be an important investment theme in 2026, we believe that there will need to be a broadening of allocation to other sectors and markets in order to see further meaningful upside in equity markets," says Sanders.
"In our view, there is the potential for earnings upgrades and re-ratings in 2026 especially in the FTSE 250 and the smaller end of the market.
"Our investment thesis remains that UK markets respond positively to interest rate cuts, and we think there will be at least two in 2026.
"We believe that any meaningful inflows into the smaller end of the market would lead to an excellent year for those invested there."
He says the large number of takeovers of UK companies "should be seen as a clear indicator of the relative value of UK equities", with 10 new deals or "flirtations" already made public in the first month of the year, including Beazley and the talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto.
9.10am: Plus500 surges, NatWest drops
One of the top FTSE 250 risers is Plus500, up almost 6% to a new all-time high after reporting prelims for 2025 and saying it expects the coming year to beat current market expectations.
This strong outlook from the trading platform provider "is no great surprise", says analyst Julian Roberts at Jefferies, as there are a lot of recent developments that may not yet have been added in forecast models, including TopStep clearing, the Kalshi predictive markets deal, the CME FanDuel clearing deal, Indian futures and Latin American developments.
Elsewhere, NatWest’s £2.7 billion agreement to buy Evelyn Partners drew a mixed response from City analysts, with the shares down 3.75% now.
Analyst Rae Maile at Panmure Liberum said the sale ends long-running speculation around Evelyn’s future, seeing off rivals suitors including Barclays and ending some hopes for a possible IPO.
Much of the £100 million in hoped-for cost savings are likely to come from NatWest’s existing operations as the business is folded into Coutts and other units, with NatWest's intention to also generate "revenue synergies".
"The track record of banks achieving these anywhere, let alone in wealth management (anyone else remember Lloyds Abbey Life?) is limited if we are generous."
8.41am: Bonds and politics
Financial markets are not seemingly as worried about Keir Starmer's futures as Prime Minister as headlines of UK media suggest.
Starmer is "on the brink" and facing a "crunch week" according to Bloomberg and the FT, after his right-hand man quit due to the growing backlash over his role in the appointment of Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US.
Gilt yields are up slightly but the moves are not massive, with the bond market in focus for matters pertaining to politics.
Analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB says: "There is a real risk that a Labour coup could see Starmer toppled in the coming days.
"This is likely to be an unsettling time for UK bond investors, as any successor could push UK economic policy further to the left, which may trigger a selloff in UK debt.
"In the past month, a political risk premium has been added to UK long-end debt, and the 10-year Gilt is the worst performer in Europe and is underperforming the US.
"This is also weighing on the pound, which was the third weakest performer in the G10 FX space last week. We expect this pattern to continue if bond yields spike."
The recovery in US stocks was the angle at the end of last week, but Brooks says participation in the latest rally is "broadening out", with the Dow Jones hitting a record high and futures extending gains today and gain across Europe, "as the stock market rally remains global and not just US-centric".
She calls Japan PM Takaichi's election win "historic", with her party securing a two-thirds super-majority in parliament and has secured the largest number of representatives in the lower house for a single party since the Second World War.
"Takaichi’s election bet has paid off, and she now has a clear mandate to pursue her agenda, which could have market ramifications.
"All eyes are on the bond market. Takaichi, like Andy Burnham, is not in hock to the bond market. She has threatened to cut taxes and boost spending even though Japan’s debt to GDP ratio is 250%."
8.15am: Miners and defence stocks lead FTSE higher
The FTSE 100 has flown 45 points higher to 10,414.5 in initial trading, led by the mining and defence sectors.
Precious metals producers Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo are top of the list, up 2.9%, followed by copper digger Antofagasta, up 2.4%.
Then defence contractor Babcock and aerospace parts supplier Melrose, both up 2.4%.
NatWest is at the bottom, down 4.7% as investors don't seem to agree with its view that acquisitions are better than share buybacks.
7.58am: Spoons barks back at Beeb article
JD Wetherspoon PLC has devoted a whole regulatory statement to its policy on customers' dogs and why it asks for paperwork at the bar.
This was triggered by a BBC news article that questioned whether the pub chain could be breaking the law.
After 15 of his own staff were bitten by dogs last year, despite a policy to only allow assistance dogs, chairman Tim Martin says: “The BBC article, unfortunately, did not explain Wetherspoon's broader legal responsibility for the safety of its customers and staff, which we set out in detail for them, and which is the reason for our policy.”
7.31am: NatWest buys wealth manager
NatWest Group PLC has agreed to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners for £2.7 billion and announced a £750 million share buyback.
The FTSE 100-listed bank said the acquisition would expand its private banking and wealth management arm to around 20% of group customer assets and liabilities, as well as increasing income from fees rather than lending.
Evelyn Partners oversees £69 billion of assets under management and administration. It provides financial planning, investment management and runs the BestInvest platform.
7.18am: FTSE 100 expected to start higher
The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week firmly on the front foot on Monday after an up-and-down few days.
On the futures market, the London index has been called 44 points higher, after climbing over 146 points last week to end at 10,369.75, up 60.5 points on the day.
Asian markets are in focus on Monday, led by a 3.9% gain for Japan's Nikkei after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won her snap election decisively over the weekend.
Stocks in China, Korea and India are all higher too.
US stock futures are flat, however, despite wrapping up last week a strong finish, led by a milestone moment for the Dow Jones as it surged over 1,200 points or 2.5%, to close above 50,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 jumped 2% in its best session since last May, while the Nasdaq climbed 2.2%, as all three snapped back from sharp losses the previous day.
In early news, NatWest has announced the acquisition of wealth management firm Evelyn Partners and a £750 million share buyback.