Future now trades on single-digit multiples that would normally scream opportunity. Panmure Liberum argues the discount is justified, at least for now, with publishing under pressure from AI-driven audience decline and price comparison caught in a tougher market. The bull case rests on one thing: breaking the company up.
Future PLC (LSE:FUTR) shares look cheap by almost any traditional metric. The stock trades on just 3.9 times forward earnings and an enterprise value to EBIT multiple below four times. Free cash flow yields approach 30%.
Yet Panmure Liberum’s conclusion is blunt. Cheap does not mean investable when momentum is absent.
Following the latest trading update, the broker slashed its price target to 875p from 1,800p, shifting to a sum-of-the-parts valuation to reflect what it sees as a structurally weaker near-term outlook for the core publishing business.
Publishing is facing its worst near-term mix
Panmure describes the current environment for Future’s publishing assets as the most challenging combination in years.
Audience pressure is intensifying just as price comparison markets become more competitive. Regulatory protection remains limited, while artificial intelligence is eroding search-driven traffic faster than credible alternatives are emerging. Google still dominates discovery, and AI-based search remains a headwind rather than a solution.
Direct digital advertising is improving in both the UK and US, helped by new higher-value products, but programmatic advertising remains weak because of its mechanical link to falling audiences. Panmure expects total digital advertising to fall around 2% in each half of FY26, with stabilisation only arriving in FY27.
E-commerce is under even greater pressure. The broker models a roughly 20% decline in the first half of FY26 before easing later in the year. Print magazines continue their steady, structural decline.
The result is simple. Publishing lacks positive financial momentum, and until that changes, valuation alone is unlikely to drive the share price.
Price comparison is steadier, not strong
Within Go.Compare, trends are marginally better but still unexciting.
Revenue declines have moderated, particularly in car insurance, but the home insurance market remains tough due to lower switching activity. Panmure assumes a mid-single-digit decline in the first half, flat performance in the second, and only modest growth returning in FY27.
Profitability is being squeezed by rising pay-per-click costs, further limiting near-term upside. While operational fixes continue, the division no longer provides enough growth to offset weakness elsewhere.
The break-up case becomes the bull case
Faced with these dynamics, Panmure has changed how it values the company.
Rather than betting on a publishing recovery, the broker applies a peer multiple to Go.Compare and assigns a conservative five times EV to EBIT multiple to the remaining publishing assets. That approach delivers the sharply reduced 875p target.
The implication is clear. The upside case for Future no longer rests on operational momentum, but on structural change.
Panmure argues that a spin-off of Go.Compare makes strategic sense and would likely unlock value even if the publishing assets are awarded modest multiples. With a new chair in place and a more pragmatic board, the broker expects separation to receive serious consideration.
Cheap, but not enough on its own
Panmure maintains a 'buy' rating, but it is a conditional one.
At current levels, the valuation looks extreme. But without a sentiment shift on AI or a clear strategic catalyst, the shares may remain stuck. In that sense, Future has become a binary stock.
Either publishing stabilises faster than feared, or the company breaks itself apart. Absent one of those outcomes, the discount may persist.
For investors, the message is uncomfortable but precise. This is no longer a simple value story. It is a restructuring story waiting for its moment.