Yesterday’s results looked solid. Today Shore Capital goes further, arguing GSK has effectively delivered its medium-term plan a year early and that a £40 billion revenue ambition for 2031 is now credible, with 2,500p “justifiable” on the shares.
GSK PLC's (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) full-year numbers on Thursday were greeted politely by the market. Shore Capital’s note this morning is much less restrained.
The broker argues the group has now delivered “another consecutive year of growth” and, more importantly, has effectively hit its FY21–26 guidance a year ahead of schedule. That, in Shore’s view, fundamentally shifts the debate around credibility and long-term value.
Hitting the plan early changes the narrative
Shore points to a busy year operationally: five FDA approvals, seven new pivotal trials, four acquisitions and ten licensing deals. That level of activity, it says, underpins confidence that GSK can manage looming HIV patent expiries.
The broker’s framing is telling. HIV is “a glidepath, not a cliff”. The implication is that investors should stop anchoring on expiry risk and focus instead on what replaces it.
Specialty Medicines now does all the heavy lifting
The note is blunt about where growth comes from next. Vaccines and General Medicines face near-term headwinds in FY26, with Shore flagging low single-digit declines or, at best, stability. US pricing pressure and recent CDC recommendation changes are part of the problem.
That leaves Specialty Medicines carrying the entire growth burden. Shore highlights that Specialty delivered 17% constant-currency growth in FY25 and thinks management’s guidance of low double-digit growth in FY26 looks beatable. It forecasts closer to 15%.
Blenrep and Exdensur are central to that thesis. GSK has previously guided to peak-year sales of more than £3 billion for each, and Shore believes upcoming launches and label expansion potential can offset any moderation in existing growth drivers such as Ojjaara or Jemperli.
FX trims the near term, but the long term improves
One area where Shore is more cautious is currency. Updating for a weaker dollar, it trims FY26 sales by 2% and cuts EPS by 5%. Even so, it remains ahead of company guidance and expects upgrades later in the year as operating leverage from Specialty growth feeds through.
More important is what happens beyond the next 12 months. Shore lifts its 2031 revenue forecast to £40 billion from £38 billion, citing pipeline progress across hepatitis B, COPD, oncology and metabolic disease. That includes a potential functional cure for chronic HBV and a broader role for Blenrep in earlier lines of multiple myeloma.
Valuation no longer looks demanding
On valuation, Shore argues GSK is finally shaking off its “perennial disappointment” label. On revised numbers, its new 2,500p fair value implies around 14 times FY26 earnings or 12 times FY27, which it views as undemanding relative to large-cap pharma peers with comparable growth profiles.
The conclusion is unequivocal. With the CHC demerger now well behind it and Specialty momentum building, Shore reiterates its Buy recommendation. For investors still waiting for proof that GSK can execute, the broker’s message is simple: that proof is already arriving.