ASX 200 futures are down about 10 points (-0.11%) at 9:45 am AEDT heading into Thursday’s open, pointing to a softer start after a Wednesday rebound driven largely by miners and energy rather than broad-based buying.
Overnight, Wall Street sent a mixed lead: the Dow finished higher (+0.53%), but the S&P 500 fell 0.51% and the Nasdaq slid 1.51%, with tech again doing the heavy lifting on the downside. What stood out was the rotation under the surface — materials, energy, real estate, health care and consumer staples all rose more than 1%, helping the equal-weight S&P 500 climb 0.87% to a new record, even as the big-tech heavy indices stayed under pressure.
That split could matter locally, with Australia’s market still skewed to “value” sectors that have been holding up better in the US. But commodities are staying jumpy: WTI crude rose 1.9% to about US$64.38 a barrel, while copper fell 3.2% and the Australian dollar eased to around US$0.6996.
What moved markets overnight
Wall Street was mixed, with headline indices masking a sharp internal rotation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both spent part of the session down more than 1% as selling pressure intensified across mega-cap tech and software, before stabilising late.
The divergence reflected ongoing unease around the near-term earnings impact of AI investment, particularly for software and platform companies where pricing power and margins remain under scrutiny. Volatility picked up alongside the rotation, with the VIX lifting toward 19, while bond yields were little changed.
Commodities also fed into the risk mix. Oil prices rebounded after reports suggested US–Iran nuclear talks were faltering, while gold firmed modestly as investors leaned back into defensive positioning following this week’s extreme swings.
ASX yesterday
The S&P/ASX 200 jumped 0.80% to 8,927.8 on Wednesday, shaking off an early wobble and finishing near highs. But it wasn’t a “rising tide” session: materials (+3.5%) and energy (+3.1%) did the heavy lifting, with financials (+1.0%) providing additional support, while rate-sensitive areas were weaker.
Resources led the charge as metals continued to stabilise, while coal names also had a strong day. On the flip side, the tech rout deepened: the information technology sector fell 9.4%, dragging the broader All Tech index down 7.1%.
Notably, small caps lagged again — the Small Ordinaries slipped 0.49% — underscoring how selective risk appetite has become.
Commodities and currencies
Commodity markets remained volatile overnight, while currency moves reflected softer risk appetite.
- Gold edged higher, holding just below US$5,000/oz after a strong rebound in the prior session.
- Oil prices rose, with Brent and WTI both up more than 1.5% on heightened geopolitical risk.
- Base metals retreated, led by copper, which fell more than 3% as traders reassessed demand and positioning following earlier volatility.
- Battery and uranium markets remained under pressure, with lithium, rare earth and uranium-linked equities extending recent pullbacks after outsized moves earlier in the week.
- Currencies saw the Australian dollar slip back below US70¢, weighed down by weaker base metals and cautious sentiment, while the US dollar firmed modestly.
- Crypto stayed heavy, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both lower as investors continued to dial back exposure to higher-volatility assets.
What’s on the agenda today
Locally, the key data point is Australia’s December trade balance (11:30am AEDT).
Offshore, central banks are in focus: the Bank of England and ECB are both expected to hold policy settings, while the US diary includes JOLTS job openings later tonight.
On the corporate side, Beach Energy is due to report earnings, while headlines to watch include fresh developments around Neuren and the broader tech/AI volatility that’s been driving global sector rotations.