Bank says latest CagriSema results meet expectations, with investor focus shifting to head-to-head data against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide.
Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has reported positive headline results from a late-stage trial of its next-generation diabetes drug CagriSema, but analysts at Citi said the data were largely expected and that more consequential readouts lie ahead.
The Danish drugmaker said its phase three REIMAGINE 2 study in type 2 diabetes showed CagriSema delivered superior weight loss and reductions in HbA1c compared with 2.4mg semaglutide, with no efficacy plateau after 68 weeks. CagriSema combines a GLP-1 agonist with an amylin analogue and is positioned as a potential successor to Novo’s existing blockbuster therapies.
Citi said the outcome was encouraging but unlikely to materially alter market expectations, noting that the trial compared CagriSema with semaglutide rather than the more competitive benchmark of Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide.
“Although positive, the data was expected,” the bank wrote, adding that the more important study for commercial positioning in diabetes will be the phase three REIMAGINE 4 head-to-head trial of CagriSema against tirzepatide at its highest approved dose.
Headline results from that study are expected in the second quarter of 2026, according to clinical trial disclosures, with regulatory filings anticipated shortly after the completion of other late-stage trials in early 2026.
Citi estimates that CagriSema’s risk-adjusted peak sales in diabetes of $5bn account for about 8% of Novo Nordisk’s net present value.
However, the bank said the obesity programme is even more significant, representing roughly 14% of valuation, with a key head-to-head obesity trial against Lilly’s Zepbound expected to drive substantial share price volatility.
Citi maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, citing multiple headwinds that offset progress in the pipeline, alongside continued support from the launch of an oral version of Wegovy.