US investors are gearing up for a packed week, with a heavy slate of economic data and earnings from some of the nation’s biggest companies. At the top of the agenda is Friday’s January jobs report, which analysts say could offer fresh insights into the health of the labor market.
The economy is expected to have added around 70,000 jobs in January, with unemployment holding steady at 4.4%, according to Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “Policymakers won’t overreact to a single data point, but any signs of renewed softness could influence expectations for Fed policy,” Brown said.
Before that, investors will get a steady drip of economic indicators: S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMIs on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls and services PMIs on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Deutsche Bank noted that even small shifts in these readings could shape sentiment ahead of Friday’s marquee numbers.
Earnings will also be in focus. Major S&P 500 names, including Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD, XETRA:AMD), Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK, XETRA:6MK), and Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE, XETRA:PFE), are due to report this week. AMD’s results on Wednesday are expected to show revenues of $9.64 billion, with net income of $2.17 billion, while Amazon investors will be watching cloud growth and supply constraints. “Reports from semiconductor names like AMD and Qualcomm are worth paying attention to, given the skepticism around the AI trade,” Brown said.
Markets are starting the week on a cautious note. XTB’s Kathleen Brooks pointed to deepening gold and silver sell-offs as a sign of risk aversion. “Traders have not yet found a level that they are happy to buy the dips,” Brooks said. “The continued selling pressure is a sign of an extremely crowded trade that is unwinding, and it may take time to return to normal.”
Despite the volatility in commodities, equity markets have remained relatively calm. The VIX index ticked slightly higher to 17.4 on Friday, still below its 12-month average of 18.8. Seasonal trends offer little guidance, with the S&P 500 up just 0.1% on average in February over the past five years.
Investors also face the backdrop of a partial US government shutdown, expected to be brief, as Congress races to pass a budget.