Jefferies analysts reiterated a “Buy” rating on Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF, FRA:6E2) after the gold producer capped off 2025 with a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, while issuing 2026 guidance broadly in line with market expectations.
The brokerage said Endeavour’s fourth-quarter production of 298,000 ounces beat both its own forecast and consensus estimates, noting the company met its FY guidance after a solid finish to the year.
Looking ahead, Jefferies said 2026 production and cost guidance contained “no major surprises,” with expected gold output of 1.09 to 1.27 million ounces broadly matching its own estimate of 1.17 million ounces and Visible Alpha consensus of 1.2 million ounces.
“All-in sustaining costs are projected to rise versus 2025 actuals due to lower grades and higher stripping at Lafigué and Houndé, higher Côte d’Ivoire royalty rates and FX movements,” Jefferies wrote, adding the guidance was “broadly in line” with its forecasts.
The analysts cautioned, however, that they expect “potentially ~$100/oz increases in AISC across the street” as estimates adjust to the midpoint of company guidance.
Jefferies highlighted that Endeavour expects costs to ease in 2027 as assets transition to higher grades and lower capital intensity, with the firm modelling AISC of $1,575/oz that year.
On capital spending, Jefferies noted Endeavour’s $500 million 2026 capex guidance came in below its own estimate, largely reflecting timing around the Assafou project, where the company plans to update growth capital once the definitive feasibility study is released in the first quarter of 2026.
The brokerage also flagged stronger-than-expected cash tax guidance, which it attributed “largely to a lower gold price assumption” used by the company.
Jefferies said Endeavour’s balance sheet and exposure to record gold prices leave it “positioned to execute its new enhanced shareholder returns program while funding organic growth, supported by a leverage ratio below 0.1x.”
Endeavour ended the year with total liquidity of $1.15 billion and has committed to a minimum $1 billion in dividends between 2026 and 2028, with scope for additional payouts and buybacks if gold prices remain elevated.
Jefferies raised its price target to C$99 from C$92, citing improved visibility on returns and balance sheet strength.