Earnings from ASML Holding NV (XETRA:ASME, NASDAQ:ASML) on Wednesday reminded the market why it sits at the centre of the global semiconductor cycle, delivering a surge in orders that dwarfed expectations and underpinned an upgrade to guidance for the 2026 financial year.
The chipmaking equipment maker's headline was bookings, as new orders reached €13.2 billion in the fourth quarter, almost double consensus and far ahead of analyst assumptions.
Much of that strength came from extreme ultraviolet systems, with memory customers in particular accelerating spending.
Net sales were €9.7 billion, in line with consensus forecasts, while net income of €9.6 billion also met forecasts as gross margins held steady.
Management now expects 2026 sales of €34 billion to €39 billion, implying growth of up to 19%.
This new forward guidance did the real work in helping lift the shares 5% in Amsterdam, with Nasdaq futures similarly boosted.
Analysts at UBS argued the midpoint of that range is conservative, pointing to rising penetration of EUV (extreme ultraviolet lithography), resilient installed base revenues and scope for further earnings upgrades as the year progresses.
The UBS team also noted that management’s assumption of a sharp slowdown in China demand looks cautious relative to wider wafer fabrication equipment trends.
Javier Correonero at Morningstar said the results were “no big surprise” given improving signals across the supply chain, adding that capacity expansions and migration to more advanced EUV layers had been well flagged.
However, he warned that “a lot of bullishness” is already priced in for the 2026 financial year and beyond, making incremental upside harder to deliver.
Matt Britzman at Hargreaves Lansdown echoed that view, noting that while analysts " will almost certainly give their numbers a healthy push higher, but with the shares having almost doubled over the past 6 months, plenty of the good news is already baked in".
He added: "Sentiment still has some room to run, but not a lot, which puts the emphasis squarely on earnings to carry the story from here."