McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD, XETRA:MDO) is set to report fourth quarter financial results in line with Wall Street estimates, according to Jefferies analysts, who see limited potential for near-term surprises but continued market share gains in the US.
For the quarter, Jefferies expects US same-store sales growth of about 4.5% and earnings per share of roughly $3, both close to consensus estimates.
Wall Street analysts, on average, expect an almost 7% year-over-year improvement in earnings per share (EPS) to $7.02, and revenue to increase to $6.82 billion from $6.39 billion for the year-ago period.
The analysts expect the company to continue citing a softer spending environment among lower-income consumers, while highlighting ongoing value, menu, and marketing initiatives as key supports for traffic and sales.
“We are not expecting much surprise in Q4, but look to more share gains driving same-store sales,” the analysts wrote.
Jefferies said share gains are being supported by multiple drivers, including iterations of McDonald’s value offerings, the rollout of new beverages, and meal and promotional partnerships tied to recognizable intellectual property. The firm also pointed to third-party data suggesting improving trends in US transactions and foot traffic during the quarter.
Margins are expected to remain stable. Jefferies models an adjusted operating margin of about 46% for Q4, broadly in line with consensus expectations.
Looking beyond the quarter, Jefferies forecasts earnings per share of about $13.25 in fiscal 2026, roughly in line with consensus estimates, and approximately $14.50 in fiscal 2027, modestly above Street expectations.
The analysts cited potential for additional upside from cost efficiencies, including lower general and administrative expenses relative to system sales, as well as continued traffic momentum tied to value-focused menu strategies.
Jefferies reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on McDonald’s shares with a price target of $360, citing expectations for continued US and global share gains, accelerating unit growth over the next several years, and ongoing free cash flow generation. Shares traded hands at about $314 on Tuesday.
McDonald's will report its Q4 earnings on February 11 before markets open.