Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) will report its fourth quarter earnings on February 5 and Bank of America analysts expect the company to top the Wall Street consensus on both revenue and profit.
The analysts estimate Q4 revenue of $213 billion and operating income of $26 billion, compared with the Street’s consensus of $211 billion and $24.6 billion, respectively.
They also forecast 22% year-over-year Amazon Web Services (AWS) growth, above the Street forecast of 21% and accelerating from 20% in the third quarter. The analysts wrote that this acceleration should be driven by greater capacity, which they expect will support incremental sales.
Bank of America’s retail checks suggest the company may deliver a modest upside to expectations. The analysts noted that their aggregated credit- and debit-card data indicates stable online spending, and they expect Amazon to continue gaining share.
“We expect results slightly ahead of Street, which project North America retail growth to slow 1 percentage point to 10% year-over-year,” they wrote.
On margins, the analysts see potential upside to Street estimates. “There is upside to Street’s estimate for 50 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion,” citing strong advertising trends, lower fuel costs, and ongoing inbound process improvements. They also expect first-quarter margins to benefit from layoffs announced in Q4.
For the first quarter outlook, Bank of America expects stable retail growth and further AWS acceleration supported by added capacity.
The analysts forecast revenue guidance of $173 billion to $178 billion and operating income guidance of $18.5 billion to $22.5 billion, compared with Street estimates of $175.4 billion and $22.1 billion, respectively. “Amazon usually beats Q1 guidance, and a beat in Q4 could drive upside to the Q1 ranges,” they noted.
If provided, Bank of America expects Amazon’s 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to be around $160 billion, slightly above Street expectations.
Bank of America reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and lowered its price target to $286 from $303, citing valuation pressure in the software sector and Amazon’s improved AWS capacity position. “Accelerating AWS growth and improving AI tech sentiment could drive multiple expansion,” they wrote, and noted that AWS enters 2026 in a stronger capacity position than it did in 2025.
Shares of Amazon traded hands at $242 on Tuesday afternoon, up 3% in the last 12 months.