- FTSE 100 up 5 points at 10,148
- Gold price surges above $5,000 an oz
- S4 Capital, Costain and Spire shares on the surge
5.05pm: Precious metals shine
The FTSE 100 finished Monday’s session just slightly higher, up 5 points at 10,148.
It was a record-breaking day for precious metals, with gold at $5,085, after surpassing $5,100 per ounce earlier in the session, and silver at $114.
“A weak US dollar in 4-month lows, heightened geopolitical tensions around Iran, and speculative demand drive precious metals like gold and silver to record highs,” IG chief technical analyst Axel Rudolph said.
“These aren't the only commodities rising, though, with US natural gas prices jumping by 20% to $6.33/MMBtu, extending a cold weather-driven rally which last week provoked a near 70% surge in the price of US natural gas, the biggest weekly advance since records began in 1990.”
4.07pm: Not just gold, but copper, tin and oil in focus
London stocks are heading for modest gains to start the last week of January.
The Footsie is up 0.2% and the FTSE 250 has added 0.3% to 23,382.44, continuing the new trend in 2026 of London's mid-caps outperforming the blue-chips.
Precious metals miners Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining are one and three on the leaderboard, separated by Antofagasta, with copper prices also at record highs, with Anglo American not far behind.
Prices of several metals continue to "melt up", also including tin and palladium.
"The difficulty now for investors lies in deciding whether a commodity is ‘expensive’ or ‘cheap,’ not least because of the absence of any cash flow from the asset," says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
"Therefore, one means of judging their value is to gauge what you could use them to buy."
In this respect, he says oil "looks very cheap relative to both silver and gold," at least based on the number of barrels of crude that an ounce of the precious metals would currently buy relative to their history.
"Perhaps the next leg of the commodity bull cycle, if indeed that is what it is, will focus on Brent and West Texas Intermediate.
"Given how crude prices have dribbled lower for most of the past three years, after the initial panic caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in spring 2022, this seems unlikely right now, especially given the momentum that gold and silver continue to generate," he adds.
Faller among the blue-chips are led by 3i Group PLC, following a downgrade from RBC.
Experian, Burberry and Autotrader Group are also fallers, the latter also a concern for UBS, which reiterated a 'sell' rating over .
3pm: Wall Street opens in green
Wall Street stocks have started the week higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up over 0.4%.
The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 have both edged up 0.3%.
Among big names, Apple, Broadcom and Oracle all climbed more than 2%.
Top risers on the S&P were auto parts group LKQ Corp, up 10% and cloud specialist Arista Networks, rising 6.7%.
Holding back the Dow were falls for insurer UnitedHealth Group, down 1.85%, followed by Boeing and Amazon.
That positivity has also sent a boost to London stocks, with the FTSE 100 reaching its highest point of the day, above 10,180.
2.16pm: AI boosting productivity but hitting jobs more in UK, maybe
More on the impact of AI on British jobs, which led to the UBS downgrade to British Land earlier (see 11.24am), research by Morgan Stanley also seems to back this up.
The bank found that UK employment is being hit harder by AI than most other countries.
Adopting AI has helped UK companies boost productivity, they said, but this resulted in more workers being let go.
Contrast this with the US, where more jobs were created as a result of productivity gains.
The research found the UK had the largest proportion of job losses compared to other countries including the US, Germany, Japan and Australia.
UK companies adopting AI saw productivity increase 11.5% in the past year, on average, with an average 8% decline in net jobs, which was twice the international average.
Five industries were surveyed: consumer staples and retail, real estate, transport, health-care equipment and automobiles.
What could be fudging the figures for the UK, is that employment costs rose during the year, following changes in the previous Budget, with rises in NIC contributions and the minimum wage.
1.42pm: Japan - "not a sell everything moment"
The move in Japanese government bond yields has "already been larger than justified by the deterioration in fiscal parameters", says UBS chief investment strategist Bhanu Baweja, adding that this take is corroborated by the stability in asset swaps.
The primary driver of JGB weakness is "inflation expectations having risen, leading to higher wage growth and repricing of the front end of the yield curve".
Lower inflation is needed to drive yields lower, he says, and then in turn help turn the yen around.
"There is reason to expect we are already in the late stages of weakness in Japanese bonds and FX," he writes. "This is not ‘sell everything’ moment such as the one the UK faced in ’22.
"Japan’s equities have done well, and interest rate sensitive sectors particularly so.
"Policymakers are ready to intervene in both FX and rates. While unilateral FX intervention usually doesn’t have a sustained impact, the prospect of joint intervention with the US is a stronger signal, and should stabilize USDJPY presently."
As inflation drops by mid-year, the JPY can be supported through higher real rates.
"Given that JGB yields are now higher than global bond yields hedged back into JPY, Japan's domestic funds may pivot away from global to local fixed income in the new fiscal year, starting April."
1pm: US stock futures in the red
US stock futures are not giving much away as Wall Street heads into a pivotal week.
Dow Jones futures are flat, while those for the S&P 500 are down 0.08% and the Nasdaq is 0.2% weaker, with investors preparing for busy round of corporate earnings and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Last week saw a choppy five days of trade, with the major indices ending in the red despite a stronger finish on Friday. The Dow dropped 0.6%, the S&P edged down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.3% over the week.
Market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation says: “This week is less about headline beats and more about the quality and durability of growth.”
As for the Fed, no policy change is expected, but markets will be parsing every word from Chair Powell on the timing of a possible rate cut.
There's fresh speculation over Powell’s successor and more political drama looms too, with another government shutdown deadline approaching Friday.
As well as gold surging to a new record high, the VIX volatility index is up more than 6%, a sign that volatility may just be warming up.
11.59am: HL changes fees
Hargreaves Lansdown is cutting its platform fee as part of a broader shake-up of its charging structure, in a move analysts say is aimed at reasserting its competitive position amid mounting pressure from rival investment platforms, though many big rivals still look cheaper.
The UK's largest direct-to-consumer investment platform told media that it would reduce the platform fee from 0.45% to 0.35% on the first £250,000 held in stocks & shares ISAs, fund accounts and self-invested personal pensions (SIPPs).
The change, as well as a fall in share trading charges, is expected to benefit close to half of customers, though new charges elsewhere may offset the savings for some account holders.
A fund dealing fee of £1.95 will be introduced, while the annual cap on charges for holding shares will rise from £45 to £150. Customers holding shares in fund accounts will also face new fees.
The company has yet to formally notify clients of the changes, analysts said, but press reports circulated ahead of an expected official update.
Analyst Julian Roberts at Jefferies said the changes are likely part of an attempt to arrest rising outflows, but while the platform fee cut appears attractive, he said HL's overall fee structure remains higher than peers such as AJ Bell PLC (LSE:AJB) and Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC), while Aberdeen Group PLC's (LSE:ABDN) interactive investor platform offers a flat-fee model that is more cost-effective for larger portfolios.
11.24am: Shell, 3i and British Land downgraded
There's a few downgrades out from City analysts this morning.
RBC Capital Markets eneergy analyst Biraj Borkhataria has cut his rating on Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) to 'sector perform' from 'outperform'.
While Shell has been a "preferred name to own in European energy over the last couple of years" as it shelled out oodles of share buybacks, looking forward the analyst sees investors "focusing more on portfolio longevity than near-term shareholder returns".
This comes in conjunction with RBC's wider view of the energy sector, which it says "stands at a critical inflection point as geopolitical tensions and greater emphasis on energy security are re-shaping the narrative".
A shifting focus away from decarbonization from the integrated energy giants over recent years has seen greater fragmentation globally, "forcing much more pragmatism and a recalibration of priorities".
RBC see "multiple reasons to suggest there is room for the US majors to outperform their European counterparts".
Elsewhere, RBC colleague Manjari Dhar has downgraded 3i Group PLC (LSE:III) as she is concerned that largest investment Action is "at risk of moving into a period of diminishing returns, given macro pressures on its customers, increased maturity and competition in major markets", which looks "at odds with its premium valuation".
Over at UBS, analyst Zachary Gauge has downgraded British Land Company PLC (LSE:BLND) to 'neutral' from 'buy'.
As well as the potential upside to his target price having narrowed since he upgraded the stock in November, he flags two reasons that justify a more conservative stance: analysis on the potential impact of AI on office demand, and concern about the challenging UK macro backdrop.
10.46am: Could the BoE hike if the Fed becomes more aggressive
A speech from a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee at the end of last week (BoE link here) is flagged by Panmure Liberum head of research Simon French.
It was "quite a hawkish speech" from Megan Greene, he says, but not on the UK economic data, where French says she was pretty balanced.
"Rather, it was her assessment that should the Fed cut more aggressively than the market is pricing she would expect the best approach of the BoE would be to hike/ be more hawkish.
"The evidence she presents is reasonable - even if the colinear nature of the hiking and cutting cycles across countries has been a real feature of this decade (see below)."
With sterling trading at US$1.36, and a key test level of $1.37 in sight, French says, "this is interesting for some of the much-loved dollar earners on the UK market who may have a headwind to contend with if this were to materialise."
10.33am: Spire frustrated
Bid or no bid, says analyst Miles Dixon at Peel Hunt, Spire Healthcare (LSE:SPI) shares have been largely rangebound at 225-245p over the last few years, and the current 177p level (£714 million market cap) "materially undervalues the operating business and the freehold real estate (c.£1.4 billion), in our view."
A brief trading update in early December described how trading momentum has been positive since the July's results, a temporary slowdown in NHS commissioning activity due to budgetary restrictions led Spire to revisit its FY guidance.
"This development was/is very frustrating from the current Government/NHS administrators (eg the proposed annual tariff uplift fell significantly short of the prevailing rate of inflation too) given that the NHS has a serious waiting list problem; that the Government has earmarked additional funding to clear the backlog and indicated its intention to make use of private providers to help clear the waiting list; and that it has willing partners (such as SPI) to help us tackle the problem.
"However, this ‘confused thinking’ is not incompatible with some of other political ‘own goals’ we have seen lately, in our view.
"We, like the company, remain confident in the medium-term outlook for private healthcare providers in the UK and are confident that the commissioning should return to normal once the impact of these short-term decisions is felt."
9.49am: FTSE in the red
The FTSE 100 has joined Continental peers in the red now.
Germany's DAX and France's CAC are down 0.3%, with the UK benchmark 0.15% in the red.
Fallers in London are led by Reckitt Benckiser, down 4.3%, and Experian, down 2.7%.
Among the other bigger fallers, travel related names are notable, including IHG, IAG, easyJet and Rolls-Royce.
That could be related to the Ryanair update, or maybe there is a geopolitical angle.
The pound and the euro are both up versus a weaker dollar this morning.
Sterling is at a four-month high against the USD, notes Neil Wilson at Saxo, but he notes that GBP pound has barely budged against EUR, which has risen above 1.18 to keep a four-month high as well.
"Keep your eyes on the Labour leadership battle that is slowly unfolding. The party blocked Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's bid to become an MP by standing in the by-election in Gorton and Denton.
"Prime minister Starmer – already deeply unpopular with the public – is now facing a backlash from his own party for what’s seen as a stitch-up to keep out Burnham.
"The risk of a change of leadership is probably what’s preventing the market pricing in a few more rate cuts by the Bank of England as it would change the fiscal position back to higher spending, looser fiscal rules.
"As noted last week, gilts have enjoyed a strong rally of late that partially reflects greater market confidence in the UK’s fiscal position.
"But this is hard-won, and bond vigilantes will be swift to punish the UK veering off path. There is a high barrier for Burnham to become PM but I don't think this is the last of the matter."
9.17am: Ryanair solid but 'conservative on guidance'
Ryanair announced third-quarter results earlier, with a net profit of €115 million that beat consensus forecasts.
Deutsche Bank said profits were lower than it expected.
Fares per passenger were much better than the airline indicated back in November, up 4% year-on-year in the quarter, with non-fuel costs also flat, though fuel was a touch higher than expected.
Ryanair cautiously guided to full-year post-tax profits in a range of €2.13-2.23 billion, with the Bloomberg consensus already at the top end of that at €2.22 billion.
Fares for the year are seen up 8-9% on the prior year, with unit cost inflation still seen as modest.
"A reasonable print from Ryanair, with fares doing better than previously guided and ex-fuel costs well under control," says DB analyst Jaime Rowbotham.
"The FY26 profit guide seems conservative, but with the shares +55% in 2025 (-3% YTD in 2026), the lack of obvious upside pressure on consensus may weigh modestly."
8.50am: Costain to hike returns
Shares in Costain Group PLC (LSE:COST) are up 8% to a five-year high after an update from the construction group confirming profits were in line with consensus, albeit revenues were around 7% behind.
Favourable working capital movements drove a materially better net cash position, and the outlook is confident, with a new agreement with the pension trustee set to unlock a £20 million share buyback and higher dividend payments.
Analysts at Peel Hunt call this pension news "significant".
"We retain our PBT and EPS estimates across the horizon (FY25E PBT £50.5m and EPS of 14.5p). We expect investors to welcome the profit, cash and proposed shareholder returns."
At Cavendish they also call it a "key milestone", with the group targeting a 3x dividend cover for FY26, aligning with peers and implying around a 50% uplift to current dividend forecasts.
8.31am: Spire spikes up
On the FTSE 250, Spire Healthcare is up almost 16% after confirming talks with two private equity firms.
The private hospital operator put itself in the shop window in September and hints that other parties are also in play.
Spire's announcement, in response to media speculation, confirmed that Bridgepoint Advisers Limited and Triton Investment Advisers are among the parties in discussions.
8.15am: FTSE starts the week positively
The FTSE 100 has begun the week on the front foot, up 27 points to 10,170.56 in the first burst of trading.
Unsurprisingly, after gold broke through $5,000, precious metals miners Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) and Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, TSX:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF, FRA:6E2) are top of the early leaderboard, up 3.8% and 3% respectively.
Next are a group made up of the likes of industrial metals miners, insurers, property developers and retailers.
Fallers are led by travel companies, with Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC (LSE:IHG) and International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) down 1.8% and 1.5%.
7.58am: What to look out for in markets
Not yet four weeks old, 2026 has "already been a tour de force of news volatility", says Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, though he notes that market volatility has "remained relatively contained".
From Venezuela to Japan, via Iran and Greenland, with a range of other themes running in the background, this spread to Canada on the weekend, when President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on the US's northern neighbour if a free trade deal is struck with China.
The odds of another US government shutdown after Friday, have also jumped, Reid notes.
On Polymarket the chances went from 8% on Friday to 78% this morning, following Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer warning that the opposition party will block the spending package unless Republicans defund the Department for Homeland Security after shoots at protests in Minnesota linked to Trump's immigration crackdown.
"If that weren’t enough to be getting on with, Rick Rieder’s odds of becoming the next Fed Chair surged from around 33% as Europe closed on Friday to over 60% at one point over the weekend, before settling at 47% this morning.
"The perception in markets is that he would be more market friendly than the previous front runner, Kevin Warsh, who is now trading at 29% on Polymarket. He was at 65% last Monday."
Finally in the UK, after gilt yields were rising last week, the Labour Party blocked potential leadership challenger Andy Burnham from contesting an imminent by-election to gain a seat in Parliament.
"Gilts may see some relative relief this morning," says Reid, as Burnham had said last September that the UK needs to "get beyond being in hock to the bond markets".
Reid says this story is "unlikely to completely go away".
Looking ahead to the rest of this week, the main event will be the US Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday, while in US corporate earnings, there are results from four Magnificent 7 stocks – Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, making up 16% of the S&P 500 by market cap.
7.50am: Spire in talks
FTSE 250-listed Spire Healthcare Group Plc (LSE:SPI) says it is in talks with Bridgepoint Advisers and Triton Investment Advisers, names it says are among the parties in discussions as part of the strategic review announced in September.
The talks are at a preliminary stage, Spire says, and there is no certainty an offer will be made or on what terms.
But under UK takeover rules, both Bridgepoint and Triton must declare their intentions by 5pm on 21 February 2026, unless granted an extension.
The company has been granted a dispensation by the Takeover Panel from naming other potential bidders unless identified in market speculation.
7.29am: Gold, always believe
Some thoughts on gold from market analst Michael Brown at Pepperstone.
"Spot gold has, this morning, traded north of $5,000/oz for the first time ever, as bullion continues its ascent at breakneck pace, bringing YTD gains to around 20%, before January has even come to an end.
"Numerous factors continue to drive the yellow metal higher, the majority of which have now been in place for some time."
He says the most significant structural factor underpinning gold remains reserve demand, primarily from emerging market central banks, seeking to diversify holdings out of the US dollar and US treasuries.
"This, to be clear, is nothing new, with the People's Bank of China having now bought gold for 14 months in a row, and this demand from reserve allocators having actually kicked-up a gear in the middle of 2022, upon the seizure of Russia’s FX reserves, which in turn was the trigger for gold’s traditional correlation with real/nominal yields to break down."
Retail demand has also been providing a tailwind, he adds, with gold ETF holdings having risen north of 100 million oz, having climbed almost nonstop since the start of last year.
"Interestingly, though, said holdings remain some considerable way off recent peaks, not only that seen in 2022 amid a surge in geopolitical risk after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but around 10mln Oz below the peak seen at the tail end of 2020, in the midst of the pandemic."
Added to these forces, the recent significant bout of US dollar weakness is "providing a further tailwind", says Brown.
"Said dollar softness is, by and large, a reflection of the ‘sell America’ trade which has gathered steam in the FX space of late, and in turn reflects the dim view that participants, on balance, are continuing to take of President Trump’s unorthodox ‘escalate to de-escalate’ negotiating strategy, and constant on-again, off-again tariff threats. Increased geopolitical risk, chiefly centring around developments in the Middle East, are also helping to further fuel haven demand for gold, and metals more broadly."
Trying to pick the top of the market is "something of a fool’s errand", Brown concludes, "particularly considering that one record high tends to beget many more, even more so in the momentum-driven markets that we’ve become used to in recent years."
But he says there are several potential selling catalysts, but they are "short-run factors that are unlikely to materially dent the structural bull case for gold, and metals at large".
7.16am: FTSE 100 set for slow start, gold, currencies and bonds in focus
A flat start to the week for the FTSE 100 is on the cards, with gold grabbing the headlines as it soars above $5,000 an ounce.
The London blue-chip share index has been called five points higher on the futures market on Monday, after last week saw a loss of roughly 92 points to close at 10,143.44.
Asian markets are in the red this morning, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.8% and India's Sensex retreating 0.9%, but Chinese equities are flatter.
Alongside gold, which is up over 2% to $5,095/oz, foreign exchange markets are also front and centre at the start of this week, with a huge move higher in the Japanese yen.
The USD/JPY tanked from a high above 159 at the end of last week to below 156 and this move resumed in the Asian session before flattening off at 154.
A Bloomberg report suggested that Japanese officials had been joined by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who bought yen to support the currency.