ASX 200 futures are down 7 points (-0.07%) as of 8:30am AEDT, pointing to a fairly flat start after a strong Thursday rally that was driven by banks and energy and turbocharged by a surprise drop in unemployment.
Thursday’s session had a bit of everything: a better tone offshore, a sharp repricing in local rate expectations after the jobs report, and a rotation on the ASX away from gold producers and back towards the big domestic defensives.
What happened on the ASX yesterday
The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.75% as breadth improved (most sectors finished higher), despite resources giving back some ground after an outsized run.
The main catalyst was macro: Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December, prompting a jump in bond yields and a lift in the market’s near-term rate expectations. The message from pricing is simple: the “higher for longer” conversation is back on the table, and the RBA’s February meeting is suddenly live again.
On the tape, that shift favoured the big banks and rate-sensitive defensives, while the previous winners in gold and broader materials cooled.
A few Thursday standouts:
- Banks led the rebound as rate-hike odds lifted (a tailwind for margins, at least in the near term).
- Energy caught a bid after Santos announced it will ship first gas from its Barossa project after significant delays.
- South32 stood out on its own production update, bucking the softer mood in materials.
- Gold miners were broadly weaker as bullion paused and traders took profit after the recent surge.
Offshore lead: Relief rally, but still watching the bond market
US markets pushed higher overnight, extending the bounce from midweek volatility. The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the Nasdaq gained 0.91%, and the Dow added 0.63%, with most sectors positive.
The market’s mood improved after President Trump softened the tariff threat tied to Greenland, flagging a “framework” approach rather than immediate levies. That de-escalation helped risk appetite and also pushed volatility lower — the VIX slid back to the mid-teens.
The other key ingredient was data. Revised US GDP (Q3) ticked up to 4.4% annualised, jobless claims remained low, and core PCE inflation printed in line — reinforcing the idea that the US economy is still expanding, even if rate-cut timing remains a moving target.
One more trend to keep an eye on: US small caps are still running hot. The Russell 2000 hit another record and has now outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 consecutive sessions, a sign leadership is broadening beyond the mega-cap trade.
Commodities and the Australian dollar
The commodity complex stayed lively, but with a more selective feel:
- Gold surged again and pushed to fresh record territory around US$4,922–4,925/oz, keeping the spotlight on bullion — even after local gold equities were hit hard in the prior session.
- Silver also remains elevated near record levels, continuing to track the broader “hard assets” bid.
- Oil moved the other way, with WTI down around 2% as traders weighed supply concerns and fresh geopolitical headlines.
- Base metals were mixed-to-firmer, with copper higher on the night, but still choppy after recent swings.
In FX, the Australian dollar was the standout mover, lifting to around US$0.684. A hotter domestic jobs picture plus a more hawkish re-think on the RBA is doing the heavy lifting here, and it matters for the ASX: a stronger currency can be a headwind for offshore earners, while helping to cool imported inflation at the margin.
What’s on the radar today
It’s a busier Friday on the corporate and macro calendar:
- Australia’s PMI prints will be the key local data point this morning. The data surprised to the upside, with both manufacturing and services expanding.
- Offshore, markets will be watching a run of global PMI updates and the Bank of Japan decision.
- On the corporate front, notable updates include quarterly earnings from Alcoa.
And in early small- and mid-cap action:
- Lindian Resources Ltd (ASX:LIN, OTC:LINIF) reported a step-change quarter at its Kangankunde rare earths project in Malawi over the December quarter, moving decisively from site establishment into active construction. Key milestones included awarding the Stage 1 processing plant design-and-construct contract, mobilising its owner-operator mining fleet, commencing construction of the Tipume accommodation camp and consolidating 100% ownership of the project. Lindian finished the December quarter with $57 million in cash, underpinning near-term execution momentum.
- Anteris Technologies Pty Ltd (ASX:AVR, NASDAQ:AVR) closed a US$320 million capital raise, combining a fully subscribed public offering with a US$90 million strategic investment from Medtronic. The funding significantly strengthens Anteris’ balance sheet and supports ongoing recruitment and execution of its global PARADIGM pivotal trial for the DurAVR transcatheter heart valve, alongside manufacturing expansion and broader clinical strategy.