Jefferies analysts said the continued commercial momentum of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)'s Spravato (esketamine nasal spray) could provide a meaningful tailwind for the broader psychedelics sector, with AtaiBeckley NV (NASDAQ:ATAI, XETRA:9VC) a direct beneficiary.
As reported by J&J on Wednesday, Spravato’s fourth quarter 2025 sales in treatment-resistant depression (TRD) rose 10% sequentially to $503 million worldwide.
The analysts noted that this pushed the drug’s run rate above $2 billion and placed it “well on track” to meet J&J’s guidance of $3 billion to $3.5 billion in annual sales by 2027 to 2028.
The analysts wrote that the drug’s “consistent quarter-over-quarter trajectory supports the notion psychedelics can be commercially viable for mental health.”
They see Spravato’s performance as evidence that psychedelics can generate significant revenue in difficult-to-treat central nervous system disorders, even if their use remains concentrated in hospitals or treatment clinics. They added that the drug’s success “incrementally” improves the perception that psychedelics are an investable space.
Jefferies also pointed to a “warming regulatory environment” and “robust datasets” across indications including generalized anxiety disorder, depression and PTSD, suggesting broader acceptance of psychedelic therapies is gaining momentum.
The analysts said Atai’s intranasal 5-MeO-DMT candidate, BPL-003, could be among the biggest beneficiaries of Spravato’s infrastructure buildout, given its development and commercial fit. The analysts wrote that BPL-003 “fits seamlessly into the 2-hour treatment paradigm of Spravato,” using a similar Aptar-based delivery device.
They also noted that the candidate could offer a significant dosing advantage, noting that BPL-003’s potential two to three month redosing cadence “materially eases dosing burden” compared with Spravato’s frequency of up to 52 times per year.
On BPL-003, Jefferies wrote that Atai’s Phase II program is supported by multiple datasets in TRD, including an 8-week active-controlled Phase IIb study and a separate open-label Phase IIa study confirming stronger efficacy with a second dose.
The analysts also pointed to a planned Q1 2026 Phase IIa trial evaluating a two-dose induction regimen, and said that a 12-week dataset expected in Q4 2026 is meant to “help fully elucidate BPL-003’s profile and utility,” rather than to inform Phase III design.
Beyond AtaiBeckley, Jefferies noted that COMPASS Pathways’ oral psilocybin candidate COMP360 could also benefit from the shifting commercial landscape. COMPASS plans a potential rolling submission following positive Phase III TRD data, and that further datasets are expected in the first half of 2026. AtaiBeckley currently holds a stake of less than 7% in CMPS, with the analysts suggesting that AtaiBeckley could also gain indirectly if COMP360 advances toward commercialization.