UBS analysts believe early January data points suggest Boeing Co (NYSE:BA, XETRA:BCO)’s 787 production momentum has strengthened following a typical year-end slowdown, supported by an uptick in Dreamlifter cargo flights and early delivery activity.
The analysts wrote that Dreamlifter flights, which transport major 787 structural components and have historically shown a close correlation with production rates, increased 69% year over year over the 30-day period ending January 9. Based on that activity, UBS estimates an implied 787 production rate of about 5.4 aircraft per month.
Flight volumes had reached an implied rate of 7.4 aircraft per month prior to the holiday slowdown, marking the first time that level had been observed since December 2020, according to the note.
The analysts wrote that January “is off to a strong start,” with 18 Dreamlifter flights recorded in the second week of the year, the highest weekly total for that period since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
UBS noted that first flights, which tend to lag production, are currently running at roughly eight aircraft per month. The analysts said this may indicate Boeing is continuing to work through existing 787 inventory, with build rates exceeding shipment rates for now. “We expect the gap between First and Dreamlifter flights to converge in the coming months, with the latter more aligned with production,” the analysts wrote.
The steady flow of parts from suppliers appears to be approaching Boeing’s stated target of producing around eight 787s per month during 2026, they added.
On deliveries, UBS cited Cirium and Planespotters data showing two 787 deliveries recorded so far in January.
During Boeing’s third quarter earnings call, management said the company had stabilized production at a rate of seven aircraft per month and intends to move to eight per month this year, with a longer-term goal of 10 per month in 2026.
UBS models an average 787 delivery rate of 6.5 aircraft per month in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising to eight per month by the first quarter of 2026. The analysts expect deliveries exiting 2026 at nine per month, reaching a 10-per-month rate by the first quarter of 2027.
The firm maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on Boeing shares, with a 12-month price target of $275, implying upside for current levels. Shares of Boeing are trading hands at about $247, up more than 40% in the last 12 months.