Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC, XETRA:INL) is expected to report better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings, driven by steady PC demand for much of the quarter and robust server requirements, according to Wedbush analysts.
The firm also noted that management’s margin guidance appears “seemingly conservative,” potentially leaving room for upside surprises.
However, Wedbush is keeping a ‘Neutral’ rating on Intel ahead of its report, citing uncertainties around volatile newsflow, Intel’s rollout of its new Panther Lake and 18A products, and continued competitive pressure from AMD in both PC and server markets.
Wall Street analysts on average expect Intel to report a 6% year-over-year drop in Q4 revenue to $13.38 billion and earnings per share of $0.08, down from $0.13 in the year-ago quarter.
Wedbush said the company’s first quarter outlook could also beat expectations if server demand remains strong, but the firm warned that the start of 2026 includes more variables.
The analysts noted that Intel’s rollout of its new Panther Lake chips has been “relatively positive,” but that the firm needs more time and data to assess the company’s manufacturing progress.
“Initial reviews of Intel’s lower end models with integrated graphics have been relatively positive, but until we get further into Intel’s roll-out with a clearer picture of performance across the product line as well as Intel delivering financials post release, it’s difficult for us to understand Intel’s progress with its newest manufacturing node,” they wrote.
Wedbush also expressed concerns that rising memory costs could push PC prices higher and hurt unit demand, a key risk for Intel’s Client Computing Group, which accounts for roughly 60% of sales.
The firm also noted that rival AMD has been gaining share in both PCs and servers. They believe that while Panther Lake could eventually shift the PC share narrative, AMD appears well-positioned to continue growing in the server market.
“In particular, we believe AMD continues to benefit from advantages in performance, core count, etc., but also that 2026 will see an even greater shift in server build share towards hyperscale customers, with OEM builds and enterprise purchases in our view more likely to be affected by memory availability and pricing issues,” they wrote.
The analysts maintained their $30 price target, noting that the stock’s near-term upside is balanced by longer-term uncertainty. Shares of the company traded up 5.7%, just shy of $50 on Tuesday afternoon.
“As we noted exiting last earnings call, we see Intel’s valuation as stretched, albeit even more so today, but also we remain unwilling to take a more cautious view given near-term trends that could be better than expected, and the stock’s variability tied to newsflow,” they wrote.
Intel will hand down its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on Wednesday.