Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) long-awaited obesity pill is unlikely to deliver clear early signals on demand, UBS has warned, even as the Swiss bank raised its price target on the Danish drugmaker’s shares by nearly a third.
In a note, UBS said that investor focus on initial prescription data for oral Wegovy risked being misplaced, as the figures would not fully capture the early stages of the launch.
Key channels such as Novo Nordisk’s own NovoCare pharmacy and telehealth providers will only begin feeding into US prescription data later in the first quarter, the bank said.
Insurance barriers are also expected to slow uptake. UBS said its checks suggested that insurers are applying prior authorisation and step-edit requirements similar to those that initially constrained injectable weight-loss drugs, limiting how quickly patients can access the pill.
UBS forecasts around 400,000 prescriptions for oral Wegovy in the first quarter of 2026, a level it said was comparable with the launch of Eli Lilly’s rival drug Zepbound and significantly stronger than Novo Nordisk’s original Wegovy rollout in 2021.
First-quarter sales are expected to reach about $100 million, based on an average price of $250 per prescription.
However, UBS struck a cautious tone on the longer-term opportunity. It estimates peak annual sales of $3.25 billion for the pill, far below the $16 billion it expects injectable Wegovy to generate.
The lower outlook reflects concerns over patient persistence, higher dropout rates seen in trials and a more limited geographic rollout, with the United States the initial priority.
While the oral format and a $149 starter price are expected to appeal to primary care doctors and cash-paying patients, UBS said it did not expect sustained acceleration in growth later in the decade.
The bank also highlighted mounting pressure across the obesity drug market. Price cuts for GLP-1 treatments in the United States are expected to weigh on sector growth in 2026, and UBS does not believe higher volumes will fully compensate. Competition remains intense, with Eli Lilly seen as maintaining market leadership.
Despite the cautious outlook, UBS raised its 12-month price target on Novo Nordisk to 390 Danish crowns from 295, reflecting higher sector valuation multiples and a return to a premium rating relative to European peers.
The bank maintained a 'neutral' stance on the shares, which trade at a premium to the wider pharmaceutical sector.