The Australian sharemarket is set for a modest lift on Thursday, with ASX 200 futures up 10 points (+0.11%) as of 8:30am AEDT, following a mixed overnight lead from Wall Street and another explosive session for global commodities.
The local market ended Wednesday only marginally higher, but the underlying picture was more nuanced — with strength in energy and materials offsetting ongoing pressure in financials, while offshore markets continue to rotate away from megacap tech and into smaller caps, defensives and hard assets.
A late save from the banks, while energy takes the lead
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 12.1 points higher (+0.14%) on Wednesday at 8,820.6, after spending much of the session struggling to find direction. The index was briefly flirting with a sharper decline before a late recovery in the banks helped steady the ship.
Financials were volatile throughout the day, having been down close to 2% at one point before paring losses into the close. Commonwealth Bank was central to that turnaround, bouncing intraday after earlier weakness and preventing a deeper market slide.
Away from the banks, leadership was clearer. Energy stocks were the standout, climbing more than 2% as oil prices continued to rally, while materials also found support amid surging metals prices. Coal names extended their grind higher, and broader resources continued to attract rotation-style flows.
Market breadth, however, was far from convincing. Despite most sectors finishing in the green, advances were narrow and selective, with the session lacking the conviction seen earlier in the week.
Small caps again outperformed, with the Small Ordinaries up 0.30% and the Emerging Companies index gaining 0.52%, reflecting ongoing appetite for leverage to commodities and exploration momentum.
Wall Street: Tech takes a breather as rotation continues
Overnight, US markets delivered a familiar pattern — headline indices lower, but with a clear internal rotation underway.
The S&P 500 fell 0.53%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.0%, while the Dow slipped just 0.09%. In contrast, the Russell 2000 rose 0.5%, extending its recent run as investors rotate toward smaller-cap and more value-oriented exposures.
Big tech bore the brunt of the selling. All of the Magnificent Seven finished lower, with particularly sharp declines across semiconductors and cloud-linked names. Earnings from major US banks failed to provide much support, despite generally solid trading revenue, with investors continuing to reassess financials amid political pressure on the Federal Reserve and uncertainty around interest-rate policy.
Bond markets struck a more defensive tone. US Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 10-year dipping to around 4.14%, reflecting a mix of geopolitical unease and cautious positioning ahead of further economic data.
Commodities steal the spotlight — again
While equities wobbled, commodities surged to fresh record territory, continuing what has become one of the defining themes of early 2026.
Against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, supply constraints and capital rotation, the complex has remained relentlessly bid. Key overnight moves included:
- Gold pushing further into record highs above US$4,600/oz
- Silver surging more than 6%, topping US$90/oz
- Copper climbing to fresh all-time highs above US$6/lb
- Nickel rallying close to 7%, reaching levels not seen since mid-2024
- Tin spiking nearly 10% intraday to new record prices
Oil was more volatile. Prices initially jumped on fears of potential supply disruptions tied to escalating tensions involving Iran, before paring gains late in the session after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested near-term de-escalation. Even so, Brent remains near its highest levels since October, and the broader energy complex continues to attract attention.
For Australian investors, the disconnect between spot prices and equity performance is becoming increasingly visible. While metals prices continue to rip higher, mining equities — particularly the larger names — have yet to fully re-rate, leaving small- and mid-cap exposures firmly in focus.
Crypto joins the risk rotation
Cryptocurrencies also re-entered the spotlight overnight, with Bitcoin jumping above US$97,000 and Ethereum rising more than 5%.
Part of the move appears technical, but renewed optimism around US crypto regulation is also helping sentiment.
What to watch today
It’s shaping up as a relatively quiet day on the local corporate calendar, leaving commodity price moves and offshore macro signals to drive sentiment.
Nickel, tin and silver remain firmly on watchlists after their latest surges, while uranium and strategic metals continue to attract steady interest. On the data front, UK and European GDP figures are due tonight, alongside US manufacturing and labour-market updates.
With volatility elevated and leadership shifting beneath the surface, the market narrative remains less about index levels, and more about where capital is quietly flowing next.