Citi has lifted its near-term view on oil, upgrading its 0–3 month Brent forecast to US$70 a barrel as it sees rising geopolitical risk feeding a higher risk premium.
With Brent around US$65/bbl, the American bank said the latest rally “has room to extend” beyond its previous US$55–65/bbl range in the coming days.
The bank framed the move around increased supply disruption risks and “likely further increases in geopolitical risk premium related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine.”
Citi noted it had highlighted those risks last week when Brent was trading around US$60–61/bbl.
The bank also pointed to the sector’s recent playbook, noting that Brent has rallied from the low US$60s to US$77/bbl in mid-2025 during Iran/Israel attacks, and argued “this time Iran is under even more pressure than it was then.”
However, Citi tempered the bullish near-term tweak with a reminder that fundamentals are not as tight.
“Of course, oil balances are looser than they were then,” it said, adding that price spikes “would provide room for producer hedging.”
Citi also flagged that President Trump wants lower oil prices, while OPEC+ still has the ability to lift supply from 2Q’26 if disruptions become sizeable.