Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro Group Ltd, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
AU consumer confidence
Last month’s consumer confidence figures were a sorry state of affairs, falling 9% month over month, its sharpest drop in five years. This unwound a surprise bounce in November that briefly pushed confidence into positive territory for the first time since the pandemic reopening. With rate cut expectations shifting to possible rate hikes, this week’s reading doesn’t exactly paint a positive picture for the average Australian.
The details from last month's release showed that family finances and views on the broader economic outlook deteriorated. Inflation remained the dominant concern for households, which is no surprise given the acceleration we saw at the back end of 2025.
We’ll see today whether that sharp decline was a one-off or the start of a decline in consumer confidence. Another weak result would underline how sensitive confidence remains to inflation surprises and rate expectations, and reinforce the cautious tone around consumer spending as we move deeper into 2026.
US inflation
This week, both headline and core inflation in the US are expected to jump, with both data points expected at 2.8% year-over-year. Investors shouldn’t be too alarmed, though, given that the figures are still likely to be distorted following the US Government Shutdown at the back end of 2025.
The key takeaway from this week's data for markets and policymakers is whether inflation momentum is genuinely re-accelerating or simply rebounding from statistical distortions. A hotter-than-expected CPI could temper rate-cut expectations in the near term. But for now, given the broader disinflation trend and still-soft labour market signals, markets seem confident that a rate cut is likely in the first half of the year.
TSMC earnings preview
It's a massive week for TSMC as it hands down its latest earnings, and with shares already up around 8% in 2026 after more than tripling over the past three years, expectations are sky high. That rally has been fuelled by relentless demand for advanced chips used in AI data centres as the chipmaker continues to sit at the centre of the AI boom.
Forecasts point to December quarterly revenue up roughly 18% year-on-year, with operating margins pushing above 50%, the highest level in around three years. Although top-line growth is slowing, margin expansion is key. It shows TSMC is not just growing, but doing so profitably, despite heavy investment in new capacity.
TSMC is in the midst of one of the largest investment cycles in its history, with capex expected to exceed US$150 billion over the next three years. While that number is eye-watering, the market has largely welcomed it. That’s because demand for cutting-edge chips is stretching capacity; it’s structural, not cyclical, and therefore scale matters. It’s ramping up its next-generation 2nm technology, and expectations are that this node could scale quickly and become a meaningful contributor to revenue as soon as next year.
Alongside headline numbers, investors will be focused on guidance, particularly around 2026 revenue growth, margins and capex. But the bottom line right now is that TSMC remains one of the clearest ways investors are choosing to show long-term confidence in AI.