Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) remains a core holding in JPMorgan’s outlook for base metals, as the bank reiterates its structurally positive view on copper heading into 2026 and beyond.
In a note ahead of the fourth-quarter reporting season, JPMorgan said its confidence in copper miners remains intact, underpinned by firm commodity prices and tightening market fundamentals.
Since early December, copper, aluminium and gold have all posted solid gains, with EMEA base metals equities following suit.
Central to the thesis is JPMorgan’s expectation that the global copper market will move into deficit from 2026.
The bank argues that fears of demand destruction or substitution into alternative materials are overstated at current prices, particularly given copper’s critical role in electrification, grid investment and decarbonisation.
Antofagasta (rated 'overweight') stands out within that framework. JPMorgan forecasts around 30% copper volume growth by 2029, driven by expansion projects across its asset base.
As production ramps up, the bank expects valuation multiples to improve meaningfully, supporting its decision to lift its long-term price target and reiterate an overweight rating.
JPMorgan also remains overweight First Quantum Minerals, which could benefit from a potential restart of Cobre Panamá, and has placed Norsk Hydro on positive catalyst watch ahead of upcoming pricing guidance.
Overall, the bank continues to favour base metals producers with clear medium-term volume growth and improving valuations, arguing that copper’s strategic importance makes this cycle more durable than previous upturns.