Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, XETRA:0QF) on Monday reiterated its 2025 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $2 billion and outlined its pipeline milestones for 2026-28, with the company continuing to focus on Covid-19 as its near-term revenue driver.
In its annual letter, Moderna highlighted that its Covid vaccines remain central to 2026, with the mNEXSPIKE vaccine representing roughly 24% of all US retail Covid vaccinations in 2025 and nearly one-third of vaccinations among adults aged 65 and older. The company expects global Covid sales to contribute $300 million to $700 million in the fourth quarter, including $100 million to $400 million from the US, supported by mNEXSPIKE, Spikevax, and mRESVIA.
Management said it expects total GAAP expenses to decline modestly to $4.9 billion in 2026, down from $5.3 billion in 2025, with further reductions to $4.2 billion–$4.6 billion by 2027 due to manufacturing efficiencies and a projected 10% improvement in gross margins over three years. Cash is expected to fall from $6.5–$7 billion in 2025 to $4.5–$5 billion in 2026, excluding a $600 million debt drawdown. Moderna reiterated its goal of achieving cash breakeven by 2028.
Looking beyond Covid, Moderna said its respiratory vaccine franchise could expand from three approved products—Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and RSV—to six by 2028, including seasonal flu, a Covid/flu combination, and Norovirus vaccines.
The company also flagged potential approvals and launches in oncology and rare diseases, including its mRNA-4157 cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck, with Phase IIb adjuvant melanoma data expected in early 2026 and potential Phase III readouts later in the year.
Rare disease programs, including mRNA-3927 for propionic acidemia and mRNA-3705 for methylmalonic acidemia, are set to deliver registrational data in 2026 ahead of anticipated launches in 2028.
Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on Moderna, with a price target of $30, noting that while 2026 remains largely a Covid story, the company’s broader pipeline provides potential for growth across vaccines, oncology, and rare disease indications.