Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s fourth quarter vehicle deliveries outpaced market expectations, attributed to robust sales of its Standard Model 3 and Model Y.
The company reported 418,200 vehicle deliveries for the quarter, slightly below the consensus estimate of 422,900 but well above whisper numbers of roughly 410,000.
Model 3 and Model Y deliveries came in at 406,600, just above the Street’s 406,300 estimate, while other models delivered 11,600 units, below the 18,300 estimate, for a total Q4 production of 434,600 vehicles and 1.63 million deliveries for the full year.
Following the release of the delivery figures, Wedbush analysts wrote in a note that they see the company as positioned for growth heading into 2026.
“The company’s lower-priced Model 3/Y deliveries for the quarter came in slightly above the Street’s estimate, while other models came in below expectations,” the analysts wrote. “This sets the company up to succeed into 2026 and beyond from a delivery perspective.”
Wedbush noted Europe remains a challenge as Tesla continues to seek regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, delaying sales in the region. Still, smaller and emerging markets are showing stronger-than-expected growth, helping offset declines in China and Europe.
The analysts also pointed to strength in Tesla’s energy business, with 14.2 GWh of storage deployments in Q4, above the Street’s 13.4 GWh estimate, and 46.7 GWh for 2025, exceeding expectations.
“Significant growth of its Megapack and Powerwall deployments shows Tesla capitalizing on rising global demand for grid-scale energy storage,” the analysts wrote.
Looking ahead, Wedbush sees Tesla’s AI and autonomous initiatives as a major growth driver in 2026. The company has begun testing the Cybercab in Austin, with volume production expected in April or May. “We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla,” the analysts wrote.
Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and $600 price target on the EV maker, noting that in a bull case scenario, Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and potentially $3 trillion by the end of 2026.
Shares of Tesla traded down 1% at about $445 on Friday morning.