Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released a company-compiled consensus of analyst expectations for its fourth-quarter 2025 vehicle deliveries, offering a lower forecast than many Wall Street estimates.
The figures were published on the company’s investor relations page ahead of the official delivery report, expected in early January.
According to Tesla, analysts on average anticipate deliveries of 422,850 vehicles in Q4, a decline of 15% compared with the same period in 2024.
This contrasts with a Bloomberg-compiled average of approximately 445,000 vehicles, representing a 10% year-over-year drop.
For the full year, Tesla’s internally compiled estimate suggests around 1.64 million vehicles, down from 1.79 million in 2024.
The company’s disclosure highlights a sequential decline from the third quarter of 2025, when Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles, representing a decrease of roughly 75,000 units.
Analysts point to several factors contributing to the lower fourth-quarter projections. A significant portion of US demand was accelerated into Q3 ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit, creating a reduction in Q4 orders.
If the estimates hold, 2025 will mark Tesla’s second consecutive year of declining annual deliveries, following a drop in 2024 from 2023 levels.
While Tesla has previously compiled average delivery estimates from analysts, the company has not routinely published these figures publicly. The decision to share them now appears aimed at managing market expectations before the official Q4 report.