The global mining sector is set for another strong year in 2026, with supply constraints, resilient demand and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts providing a favorable backdrop for earnings growth and rising share prices, according to analysts at Jefferies.
“2026 should be a year of commodity-driven earnings growth for the sector,” Jefferies analysts wrote, highlighting copper and aluminum as the metals with the most upside potential due to widening supply deficits and rising power costs.
The firm also noted that miners with the most organic growth continue to trade at the highest multiples.
Jefferies expects a positive macro environment to support the sector. A more accommodative Fed could weaken the dollar, push inflation slightly higher, and strengthen the economy — all tailwinds for commodities.
Even without aggressive Fed support, US demand for copper, aluminum, and coal could benefit from strengthening electricity markets and planned investment to expand the power grid. Chinese demand is expected to remain weak but stable, with no major downturn anticipated.
The firm said the sector is entering “significant mark-to-market earnings upgrades territory for 2026,” though higher capital expenditure (capex) could partially offset these gains. “BHP, Lundin and, possibly, Glencore have the most capex risk for real growth projects,” Jefferies noted, adding that most miners are expected to raise capex guidance as they pivot toward growth initiatives.
Jefferies highlighted Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX, XETRA:FPMB), Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN), Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL), and Alcoa (NYSE:AA) as its top picks for 2026. For Freeport, a recovery at Grasberg is expected to reverse underperformance in the second half of 2025. Glencore could see benefits from operational improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions. Anglo is positioned for multiple catalysts as it exits De Beers, met coal, and nickel ahead of its planned merger with Teck. Alcoa’s operational improvements and rising free cash flow are expected to drive further deleveraging and eventual capital returns.
“For each of our top picks, share price upside is not entirely dependent on rising commodity prices, but commodity price strength in each case should clearly help,” Jefferies said.
Overall, the analysts expect the sector to outperform as long as the global economy remains healthy, with 2026 shaping up as a year of growth and opportunity for miners worldwide.