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The Markets
by Proactive
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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S&P 500 closes nears record highs on AI stock gains

With the calendar flipping toward the final trading days of 2025, investors are starting to talk up the chances of a Santa Claus rally

Proactive

4:10pm: Tech leads year-end rally

US stocks closed higher Monday, with investors shrugging off recent volatility to push major indexes further toward record territory.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 6,878, the Dow Jones added 0.5% to 48,363, the Nasdaq rose 0.5% to 23,429, and the Russell 2000 jumped 1% to 2,555.

Tech stocks led the charge, continuing a bounce from last week’s choppy trading. Investors wrestled with competing concerns: the risk of an AI bubble versus the fear of missing out on an AI-driven surge. Late-week optimism over Oracle and Nvidia helped reignite faith in the AI trade, and shares of both companies rose again Monday. Tesla also surged, pushing near record highs.

With the year-end stretch ahead, traders are watching closely to see if tech can maintain momentum and possibly fuel a Santa Claus rally. Markets are now within striking distance of record levels after a surprise dip in inflation and softer-than-expected labor market data kept bets on 2026 interest-rate cuts largely intact.

Attention now turns to a backlog of economic reports delayed by the recent US government shutdown. Highlights this week include a first look at third-quarter GDP and updates on the PCE price index for July, August, and September, all due Tuesday. Investors will be looking for any signals that could shape the Fed’s next moves.

3:40pm: Proactive news headlines

2:35pm: Market movers

1:50pm: Gold at record highs again

Gold surged to record levels overnight as U.S. forces intensified their blockade of Venezuelan oil, seizing a second tanker this month and pursuing another for “flying a false flag,” LPL Financial noted. The move adds a geopolitical risk premium, with tensions potentially extending to Venezuelan allies like China or Russia.

Supportive factors include expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts—markets are now pricing in nearly 40% probability of three cuts in 2026—dollar weakness, steady central bank buying, and renewed ETF demand. Gold has surpassed its October highs at $4,382, with technical analysis suggesting a potential near-term target around $4,875, though indicators show the metal is in overbought territory.

12:45pm: Holiday mood

Markets are flying into the holiday-shortened trading week on the upswing.

Just after the afternoon session ticked over, both the Dow and the S&P 500 were up 0.7%, with the Nasdaq following close behind with a 0.6% gain.

11:20am: More Warner Bros Discovery drama

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX, XETRA:NFC) has restructured part of the financing for its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery Inc (NASDAQ:WBD, XETRA:J5A), while Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has provided a personal guarantee to support a competing Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) bid, moves aimed at assuring WBD’s board and shareholders that both offers are fully funded.

Netflix initially secured a roughly $59 billion short-term bridge loan to back its mostly cash-and-stock proposal. The company has now replaced part of that bridge with $5 billion in revolving credit and about $20 billion in delayed-draw term loans, leaving roughly $34 billion still to be syndicated to other lenders.

But on Monday, Ellison stepped in with an irrevocable personal guarantee covering about $40.4 billion, using his wealth, including a significant Oracle stake, as a backstop.

Warner Bros shares added 3% on the news, Netflix was down 0.7%, while Paramount Skydance stock surged more than 7%.

10:40am: (Short) week ahead

Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened week with markets closed on Christmas Day, but investors will still have plenty to watch, including key economic data and major corporate moves.

On Tuesday, the delayed Q3 GDP report is set to land, along with a reading on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — widely considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. “With inflation moderating, a ‘modestly restrictive’ policy setting may be all but moot,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a festive recap of recent economic developments, noting that traders are keeping a close eye on labor market signals and rate cut probabilities for 2026.

Analysts are also watching for a so-called Santa Claus rally — a historical pattern of stock gains in the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the next. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted that “tech stocks are leading this Santa Rally and Europe is tech-light, so it may be a laggard as we start a new week.”

Precious metals are also on the move. Gold hit a fresh record above $4,400 on Monday, capping its strongest annual performance in four decades, Brooks said. Silver is up more than 20% this month, outperforming equities, while oil prices have surged following US sanctions on Venezuela, though analysts caution the gains may be fleeting.

9:55am: Market looks past weak December start

Stocks opened higher Monday as investors kicked off a holiday-shortened week hoping for a seasonal Santa Claus rally, brushing off a shaky start to December.

The Nasdaq climbed 134 points, or 0.6%, to 23,442, while the S&P 500 added 30 points, or 0.4%, to 6,864. The Dow Jones rose 87 points, or 0.2%, to 48,222 and the Russell 2000 gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,553.

Investors are looking ahead to a slew of economic data delayed by the recent US government shutdown. Most releases are expected Tuesday, including a first look at third-quarter GDP and updates on the PCE price index for July through September.

Entertainment stocks were among the early movers Monday. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) jumped more than 5% and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rose over 4% after Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison agreed to personally back $40.4 billion in equity financing for Paramount’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Paramount said the Ellison family trust owns roughly 1.16 billion shares of Oracle stock and that Ellison will not alter trust assets while negotiations are ongoing.

David Ellison, Paramount’s CEO, reiterated that the $30-per-share all-cash offer remains the superior option to maximize value for WBD shareholders.

Meanwhile, Clearwater Analytics Holdings climbed 8% in early trading after private equity firms Permira and Warburg Pincus agreed to take the company private at $24.55 per share, a 47% premium over its share price before sale rumors emerged in November.

8:05am: Santa Claus rally hopes raised

Wall Street futures are pointing a little higher as markets head into Monday, with investors still in a cautiously upbeat mood after a solid run late last week.

Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.5% early on, S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, and Dow futures hovered just above flat, keeping the major indexes on track for what would be a third straight day of gains.

The big question to kick off the week is whether tech can keep carrying the torch. With the calendar flipping toward the final trading days of 2025, investors are starting to talk up the chances of a Santa Claus rally. Stocks are entering this stretch within striking distance of record highs, helped along by a surprise drop in inflation and softer labor market data that have kept expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026 largely intact.

Outside equities, gold and silver pushed to fresh record highs as tensions simmered, while oil prices also moved higher after the US stepped up its blockade of Venezuela.

Looking ahead, this week brings a backlog of US economic data that was delayed by the government shutdown. Most of it lands on Tuesday, including a first look at third-quarter GDP and updated readings on the PCE price index for July, August and September — numbers that could help shape expectations for growth and inflation as the year winds down.

Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, says markets are finishing the year in a “cautiously optimistic” frame of mind. He notes that while smaller companies lagged and concerns around lofty AI valuations kept some investors on edge, easing inflation offered a welcome counterbalance.

There’s also plenty of corporate and global chatter to keep investors busy. Clearwater Analytics is set to be acquired for about $8.4 billion by a group led by Permira and Warburg Pincus, with Temasek also involved. The US Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year notes today. Elsewhere, Uber and Lyft are preparing to trial robotaxis in the UK with China’s Baidu, and Apollo Global is reportedly cutting risk and building cash buffers in case markets turn choppy.

All told, Monday’s setup feels like a steady start to the week with optimism still there, but investors are keeping one eye on the data and another on the risks as 2025 heads for the finish line.

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