- FTSE 100 down 34 points at 9,862
- Dow and Nasdaq up strongly
- CBI survey adds to gloomy picture of economy
- Precious metals stocks glisten
Close
That's a wrap. No Santa rally for the UK's blue-chips on what was an anaemic session in London ahead of the Christmas break.
Down more than 60 points earlier in the session, the Footsie ended Monday off 31.45 points at 9,865.97.
3.54pm: Ellison backs Paramount bid
Netflix Inc has restructured part of the financing for its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery Inc, while Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has provided a personal guarantee to support a competing Paramount Skydance bid, moves aimed at assuring WBD’s board and shareholders that both offers are fully funded.
Paramount/Skydance has offered an all-cash deal valued at approximately $108 billion, or $30 per share, but WBD had expressed concerns about the structure of more than $40 billion of the equity financing.
Ellison on Monday stepped in with an irrevocable personal guarantee covering about $40.4 billion, using his wealth, including a significant Oracle stake, as a backstop. Paramount also increased its reverse breakup fee to $5.8 billion and enhanced certain operational flexibilities in its proposed merger agreement.
2.40pm: US markets firmly in the green
While the FTSE 100 was down in the dumps, there was a pep in the step of New York traders.
The Dow opened 153 points higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 108.
The big question to kick off the week is whether tech can keep carrying the torch. With the calendar flipping toward the final trading days of 2025, investors are starting to talk up the chances of a Santa Claus rally. Stocks are entering this stretch within striking distance of record highs, helped along by a surprise drop in inflation and softer labor market data that have kept expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026 largely intact.
Outside equities, gold and silver pushed to fresh record highs as tensions simmered, while oil prices also moved higher after the US stepped up its blockade of Venezuela.
Looking ahead, this week brings a backlog of US economic data that was delayed by the government shutdown. Most of it lands on Tuesday, including a first look at third-quarter GDP and updated readings on the PCE price index for July, August and September — numbers that could help shape expectations for growth and inflation as the year winds down.
1.55pm: Festive cheer for Wall Street
Wall Street futures are pointing a little higher as markets head into Monday, with investors still in a cautiously upbeat mood after a solid run late last week.
Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.5% early on, S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, and Dow futures hovered just above flat, keeping the major indexes on track for what would be a third straight day of gains.
12:55pm: Precious metals stocks in demand
Precious metals stocks led the FTSE 100 on Monday, with Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo topping the leaderboard as gold and silver surged to new record highs.
Spot gold climbed 1.6% on Monday to about $4,411 an ounce, while silver rallied to an all-time high of $69.45 overnight before nudging back a little to $69.08.
However, the 2.8% spike extended a powerful run that has characterised much of the year.
The move appeared to reflect a mix of end-of-year portfolio hedging and longer-term forces that remain firmly in place.
For gold, sustained buying by central banks has continued to underpin prices. Silver, meanwhile, has been boosted by strong industrial demand, particularly from sectors linked to electrification and renewable energy.
12.03pm: FTSE gold gains offset by consumer names
At midday, the FTSE remains weighed down by fallers across various sectors.
Consumer-facing stocks have taken over most of the bottom spots, with drinks maker Diageo down almost 3%, Coca-Cola Europacific, Imperial Brands, Marks & Spencer, Reckitt Benckiser all down between 1% and 2.2%.
Preventing further losses for the index, gold miners, tech funds and base metals miners are top of the leaderboard.
Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo top of the tree, up 2.5% both.
Precious metals miners have led the way for much of 2025, notes market analyst Russ Mould at AJ Bell, with gold "hitting a new all-time high on expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and robust demand for its safe haven qualities".
With US futures up 0.4-0.6%, he adds: "An end-of-the-week rally in US stocks, driven by revived enthusiasm for AI, which also saw Asian markets move higher overnight, is not so relevant for a UK stock market largely bereft of tech names of any scale."
11.04am: European stocks subdued, gold hits new high
In the penultimate trading week of the year, gold has reached a fresh record high of almost $4,420 an ounce in the past couple of hours.
Europe is "tech-light", so the FTSE and France's CAC are laggards as we start the week, says market analyst Kathleen Brooks at XTB, but commodities are surging.
The gold price hit a fresh record high on Monday and is above $4,400, which she says is as "geopolitical concerns heat up and hopes grow that the Fed can continue to cut rates next year as US inflation moderates".
It is the strongest annual performance for the yellow metal in four decades, Brooks notes, "and today’s price action suggests that it is not done yet".
Oil prices are rising too, with some pointing to US forces boarding another sanctioned oil tanker near Venezuela.
"When the oil blockade was announced last week, it sent the price of oil soaring and helped Brent crude to rise above $60 after it had slid below this key threshold on the back of concerns about excess supply," says Brooks.
However, Venezuela alone does not currently produce a large enough amount of oil to move the market for the long term and so "gains could be fleeting".
Stock market volatility has also retreated in the past week, and is well below its average of the year so far, Brooks adds, but it has been a "choppy" period for global stocks, especially those in the US, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% so far in December and the Nasdaq down 0.25%.
"There has been a large divergence in performance, for example, the transport and banking sectors have surged in December, while the Philadelphia semiconductor sector is just about eking out a gain. The question now is, will there be a Santa Rally over the last trading days of 2025?"
The final US data will be a GDP report, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, FOMC meeting minutes, and US industrial production data for October and November.
"The minutes could be the most market-moving event this week, as traders assess the chances of further Fed rate cuts in 2026. Signs that rates could be cut further could further ignite the Santa rally as we near year end," Brooks concludes.
10.14am: GDP is gloomy, but some economists see positive signs ahead
After UK GDP growth slowed to 0.1% in the third quarter, from 0.2% in the second, ONS director Liz McKeown said the updated figures confirmed that growth was continuing to slow in the third quarter.
"Growth in services were partially offset by falls in production, with a marked drop in car manufacturing," she said, which will be reflecting the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover from the cyber incident.
McKeown says the figures show the household saving ratio, whilst falling in recent periods, "remains high by historic standards".
According to the figures, real GDP per head was flat in the latest quarter, up 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago.
Real household disposable income per head fell 0.8% in the latest quarter, following no change in the previous quarter.
There were some "notable revisions", say economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, with output rising by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, while growth of gross fixed capital formation was marked down to 1.3% in Q3, from 1.8% before.
Household spending was revised up slightly to show quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3%, from being unchanged in Q2, and up slightly from the first estimate of 0.2%.
The household saving rate fell to 9.5% in Q3, from 10.2% in Q2, which Pantheon says suggests "consumers were fractionally less cautious than the ONS previously assessed, and consistent with the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25bp in August".
"Pre-Budget uncertainty likely led consumers to pull back on spending in Q4 as fiscal worries dominated the headlines for months on end; retail sales volumes fell by around a percentage point across October and November, for instance," the economists say.
"Looking ahead to 2026, we think the improvement in consumers’ confidence—likely off the back of the Chancellor shelving an income tax hike—bodes well for consumer spending.
"GDP growth should accelerate in Q1, with the Budget now in the rear-view mirror. That will boost the demand for labour and assuage households’ fears of a labour market slowdown.
"Consumers’ can run down their saving rate to support consumer spending through a period of still-high inflation.
"The latest of the soft data; the GfK’s major purchases balance—a good bellwether for consumers’ spending—jumped to a 47-month high in December for instance.
"That suggests to us that households are already keen to put the Budget behind them and continue spending."
9.35am: Carnival sailing away
Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL) & PLC (LSE:CCL) is moving fast.
Having announced on Friday that it was planning to leave London with a consolidation of its UK and US listed shares with a single issue of shares in New York, it today confirms that it has filed materials with the US Securities and Exchange Commission already.
Shares in the London-listed PLC jumped over 17% on the news at the end of last week.
8.39am: Miners on the up
Precious metals miners are dominating the upper echelons of the FTSE 350.
Hochschild Mining is top, up 4.2%, while blue-chips Endeavour and Fresnillo are both up over 2%.
This is with the gold price up 1.5% at $4407 an ounce and silver up 2.4% at $68.7 an oz.
Other risers are Pan African Resources, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Glencore and Rio Tinto, all among the top 15 risers.
8.16am: FTSE losing some weight
The FTSE has lost some pre-Christmas weight in initial Monday dealings, with defensives on the slide, including utilities, tobacco and drug companies all lower. Property developers are also being sold.
London's blue-chip index has opened down 27 points at 9,870.
DCC PLC is bottom of the list, followed by names such as Imperial Brands, British Land, Land Sec, Severn Trent, National Grid, AstraZeneca, GSK and Centrica.
8am: GSK agrees drug pricing deal to avoid tariffs
GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) has become the latest big pharma company to fall into line with the US government's "most favoured nation" drug pricing regime, in exchange for an exemption from tariffs.
The FTSE 100 group said the voluntary agreement with the White House implements all four policy actions requested by President Trump earlier this year, including reduced prices for asthma and COPD treatments used by over 40 million people in the US.
As part of the arrangement, the UK company will offer several medicines, including much of its inhaled respiratory portfolio, at discounts of up to 66% via a direct-to-patient platform.
New drugs will be launched under a 'most favoured nation' pricing model, ensuring US citizens pay no more than the lowest price charged in other developed markets.
7.47am: Rank hit by fraud in Spain
Rank Group PLC (LSE:RNK) has warned that its Spanish businesses have been the victim of a €7.1 million payment fraud, which is being investigated by local police.
The FTSE 250 group operates under two brands in Spain, online gaming and betting sites under the Yo banner, and the nine Enracha venues offering bingo, electronic casino and slot games.
Rank said it reported the matter to law enforcement agencies and is supporting their investigations, as well as using an external law firm to help with an internal investigation.
7.23am: No growth expected this quarter or next, UK business survey finds
For those wanting more information from the CBI's latest 'Growth Indicator' survey, well, it does not indicate much growth.
The growth indicator's weighted balance, a measure of the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decline, came in at -30% in December, worsening from -27% the month before and extending a negative run from the end of last year.
It was compiled from a survey of more than 900 companies between the week of Rachel Reeves’s budget and 11 December.
“Our latest surveys round off a disappointing year for private sector growth. They mark a continuation of the headwinds that have plagued businesses over the past 12 months: tepid demand conditions, with households cautious around spending; and strong cost pressures squeezing margins,” says CBI economist Alpesh Paella.
“Uncertainty ahead of November’s Budget also put the brakes on key spending decisions and big projects, choking up pipelines of work. The latest Growth Indicator suggests that the alleviation of this uncertainty hasn’t materially boosted activity.”
The CBI's measure of private sector activity over the three months to December was relatively unchanged at -34%, compared with -35% for the three months to November.
It chimes with the Bank of England staff forecasts last week, which predict there will be no growth in the economy for the final quarter of 2025.
7.16am: FTSE to take a breather
A pause for breath for the FTSE 100 is expected on the Monday before Christmas, after a fruitful previous week and with the arrival of more gloomy economic data and business surveys.
London's blue-chip index has been called 10 points lower on the futures market, following a week where the benchmark added 248.42 points or 2.6% to reach 9,897.42.
UK economic growth slowed to 0.1% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics said earlier, in line with an initial estimate, while gross domestic product growth in the second quarter was revised down to 0.2% from 0.3%.
Elsewhere, there was a poll is from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which said private sector output was on track to fall in the fourth quarter the year, with a decline in activity reported across all sectors in the three months to December and expectations low for the first quarter of next year.
Separately, the number of UK vacancies shrank last 6.4% month-on-month in November, down for the fifth month in a row, according to figures from jobs website Adzuna.
Back on markets, US futures are mostly up, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq called 0.3% and 0.5% higher, but the Dow Jones flat, after a mixed week, which ended marginally higher for the S&P and Nasdaq but lower for the Dow.
Asian markets are all in green this morning, led by Japan's Nikkei, which is up 1.8%, with India's Sensex and China's domestic Shanghai Composite both rising 0.6%